# Will Texas be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmadseed
Updated: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.752Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-ariz |
| Arkansas | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-ark |
| UConn | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-conn |
| Duke | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-duke |
| Florida | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-fla |
| Gonzaga | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gonzaga-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-gonz |
| Houston | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-hou |
| Illinois | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-ill |
| Kansas | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-202-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-ku |
| Louisville | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-lou |
| Michigan | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-mich |
| Michigan St. | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-th-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-msu |
| Nebraska | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-neb |
| Tennessee | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-tenn |
| Texas | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-tex |
| Texas Tech | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-tech-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-ttu |
| Virginia | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-be-selected-as-a-top-2-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t2-uva |
| Alabama | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-be-selected-as-a-top-3-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t3-ala |
| Arizona | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-be-selected-as-a-top-3-seed-in-the-20-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t3-ariz |
| Arkansas | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-be-selected-as-a-top-3-seed-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmarmadseed-27t3-ark |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | 5 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that the University of Texas men's basketball team will receive a top-5 seed (1-5) in the NCAA Division I Tournament selection on March 17, 2027. The 43% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Texas will finish among the nation's strongest teams by tournament time. The current level likely reflects Texas's recent trajectory in the Big 12 Conference and national rankings, balanced against the difficulty of maintaining elite status through the remainder of the regular season and conference tournament. Several factors could shift this probability: significant win/loss streaks during the 2026-27 season, changes in roster health or player availability, and tournament performance in March would all influence the actual selection committee's seeding decision. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be the official NCAA tournament selection announcement in mid-March 2027, when seeds are officially assigned based on the committee's evaluation of teams' performance, strength of schedule, and other metrics.

### Key factors

- Texas's conference record and winning percentage through the 2026-27 regular season and Big 12 tournament
- Strength of schedule results, including performance against ranked opponents and tournament-quality teams
- Comparison to other major conference teams projected for top seeds (Florida at 61¢, Arizona at 18-32¢ range suggest competitive field)
- Player health and roster continuity through January-March 2027
- The NCAA selection committee's evaluation criteria applied consistently across all 68-team tournament field on March 17, 2027

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmadseed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=marmadseed

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.