# Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. AC Nagano Parceiro

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:27.088Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ho-polymarket-0x138f6b57280ad59d6d75bfceb6ba63aa3cc369d718f275c28f6cb995fb9b2b05 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5) | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x1852d18e0a0dafb61e1e56b56bbf939e15f90a9fda5e851a5b6fd6dee03e1f72 |
| FC Gifu | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-fc-gifu-polymarket-0x55f8ff808e04ba5a3a73dde0691562771bcb3cb8fbe41b84e490bec674e9ccff |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x0aa1722974d0d761f7018efffe974ca6abd0209d5e331d478e2af3d9fc3d3ef6 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0xcca25a65e8448fbb4aa8c06f0ca6fbf0c7b3cb6060a43dd0414d69b32b1fc845 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro | 36¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ac-polymarket-0x9bd3d86b848be1f15a9812fda9adb892b145019a0737cefda65ecf985ad8a2f1 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3db89e322cf7de910df0fae46ada35f0f46cb9d277932a373291b408016c85f4 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5) | 33¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x50d1b1bda87e6cd16b3ed4f8e35650399bc8f3d463ed3272a8f24db36584dd2f |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x0f2b3ba75971abcde502d3fa8eeb0dbbbce4901c67fafb3cdf002aa3f5049e2a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2e6bb7cb8f323d978a8fadf561c1496a0f6d8298d2c6efa5321b54bee0705304 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x12cb79b9213eccdd8f35d1135073dd17e5e20273e2306aeb96b44cccd091e2fd |
| O/U 3.5 | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x49ed80a3b9531eea817bc20384d20ac3eae558d647ba1b09354789e33b33fb98 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2d6f526ac4b489f0fa76b549ed100f2a4ef6c42208eb1c75fe4a73494f46eee5 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x17df3fdd9ae468ca339d552365e8b3fcb832dc058c848ee984ec609927e93a78 |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3d911221648823c1087df22eb6d2d5fc2ee0ef213d51afeb1b4193a777432eaf |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x3a25257752ae203ce7e44aaf9f83b67e7af6cee3a7fff4ce75b267ea89272e6c |
| FC Gifu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-fc-gif-polymarket-0x357eb004b00c13faa2a3d4747cdaf5e3560c72bd526a9fd60c94b0b22de95b1a |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-dr-polymarket-0xdd765cef72c5da3ca348fa0d7b0ee6f53146c1e310a0bba3ddd4e798385886d6 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xe897e50d7baaa8c1d5c4fd529fcb12245c25e1169e9f4b010bcb870b0cb145d0 |
| FC Gifu (-1.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-fc-gif-polymarket-0xc2a30acf8595cda38cdf9ddce26e0d8d591c59ed085c912592d0a8027540e6c8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +5pp 50→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Gifu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.