# Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 74%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:27.826Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 74%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 74¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xe8b285719d64bd3576b2f27bf98333da43676d58082630ec2c3e82cc858d15d9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x46137ef6fa8c6e163d140192482e62f1a5821d9f92ad551bba63c4bc4ac57d14 |
| O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x96a11db439b4d2c59658fc262e3e52babbca56ffe1e50801381a711fce948454 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) | 22¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-m-polymarket-0x928a989ac1f22fd55a0d23cc26e44d4587bf2b5f24c638283e61661a2c77fdf4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 21¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x600588fe754190787557d982ef8731ad6613f63f684222aadc837da7dfab4364 |
| Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) | 13¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xe5e5fdd6e38d3473ed93c8d4f62166205f1b8541d4cd35aee3b241fe4f92d637 |
| Fujieda MYFC (-2.5) | 13¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x367b6becb651ad5a98d5ad891d76dacbf48c4b577b3be0d18c0773e84b6b76cc |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-m-polymarket-0xb0968912fc93685602bb69eb4ec0a2a52582986c3415c6c4ed2a59188dd12141 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xda99964707293201dd6f2dc52d735d9cbfde9a3d05c4f269f70edcc4c187e76b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | 52 | 52 |
| 2026-05-07 | 65 | 52 | 53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 66 | 51 | 51 |
| 2026-05-09 | 74 | 54 | 46 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Fujieda MYFC (-2.5) −16pp 27→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) −15pp 33→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · O/U 3.5 −15pp 36→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) −12pp 36→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) −12pp 24→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 55% probability reflects market expectations that both Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fujieda MYFC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is based on limited trading activity ($0 volume in the past 24 hours across five related contracts), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals. The market prices suggest traders view a both-teams-to-score outcome as moderately more likely than either team winning by specific margins (priced at 29-33%). Factors influencing this estimate include recent offensive and defensive form, injury status of key players, and home/away advantage. The match result will be determined once the game concludes, resolving all related outcome contracts simultaneously. Current pricing reflects J2 League regular-season match dynamics, where scoring patterns and team capabilities are the primary drivers of probability.

### Key factors

- Both teams' recent goal-scoring frequency and defensive vulnerability in their last 5-10 matches
- Current season standings, injury reports, and whether either team is dealing with key absences
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs
- Home field advantage and crowd factors for the scheduled venue
- Whether the match is early/mid-season (higher variance) or near season-end (more settled form)

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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