# Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc
Updated: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: Matsumoto Yamaga FC at 56%
- Runner-up: Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC | 56¢ | −21pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-matsumo-polymarket-0x702a50db8128959b58f9aa76d6ac739befbda89364216a65201341721b835384 |
| Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) | 22¢ | +12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-draw-ma-polymarket-0x1e51d55a7f42cedab63005b8fe760d8d66f5093ecf77e1691cfe2a0c64f107ac |
| Fukushima United FC | 21¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-fukushi-polymarket-0x85ecbf9df1c27bc05a88b73047288166b680616d2744e7c400d3e6d5e0406bcc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Matsumoto Yamaga FC | Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) | Fukushima United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 56 | 29 | 24 |
| 2026-05-23 | 55 | 24 | 21 |
| 2026-05-24 | 34 | 36 | 18 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Matsumoto Yamaga FC −21pp 55→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) +12pp 24→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) −5pp 29→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Fukushima United FC −3pp 24→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Fukushima United FC −3pp 21→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the 55% probability that Matsumoto Yamaga FC will defeat Fukushima United FC in an upcoming match, with a 27% chance of a Fukushima victory and 18% chance of a draw. The relatively modest confidence in Matsumoto reflects competitive balance in Japanese football, where team form, head-to-head history, and recent league performance significantly influence outcomes. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on a specific date when the two teams compete. Key variables affecting the probability include current league standings, recent win-loss records, player availability, and historical performance in direct matchups. The low trading volume on these contracts suggests limited market depth, meaning new information or significant bets could shift prices noticeably. Investors would primarily monitor team news closer to kickoff, including injury reports or lineup changes, which could alter the implied probabilities substantially.

### Key factors

- Current league positions and points differential between Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fukushima United FC
- Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for both teams, including goals scored and conceded
- Head-to-head historical record and performance patterns in previous direct matchups
- Known player injuries, suspensions, or roster absences affecting either team's lineup
- Home/away advantage factor, venue conditions, and weather forecast for match day

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.