# Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-2.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-jbilo-iwata
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:42.869Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 56¢ | −2pp | $19 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc95a40ed69964b6bf80808a6feb48139a5d5b1f748f578c4ed28b0029609390b |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x0aa1722974d0d761f7018efffe974ca6abd0209d5e331d478e2af3d9fc3d3ef6 |
| FC Gifu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-fc-gif-polymarket-0x357eb004b00c13faa2a3d4747cdaf5e3560c72bd526a9fd60c94b0b22de95b1a |
| Ventforet Kōfu (-1.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ventfore-polymarket-0xdb97994ff0f9f078764c0bfdce846d16220e7ad6a403a34e8d0bcae6e19e5f07 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x0adfa4918a8bf70be6fdf0d15f8f93676d28a46b5f0a3db45e7c32f95f5b5fdd |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x14ea8881e0ff991b7eac70c6ccd9ae80d585a7218622d7c937f1335dcb9ff55f |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x6ae87aada8ac044869602743e762f47975c5e8db09aba99b39fa32767636092d |
| Ventforet Kōfu (-2.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ventfore-polymarket-0xcac6d64b5b91bbe848ae0f625e84a99d9898a73a5fce724a954fac491b71bece |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xdbabefa95197903ab01772852d0e379335c873592517f1d342f805a5ae4a231f |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x35df374ce3e6fd83656a7376b8980d9a428a9cbd1eab32a2fdff65f2a7b00e4f |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xe897e50d7baaa8c1d5c4fd529fcb12245c25e1169e9f4b010bcb870b0cb145d0 |
| Júbilo Iwata (-2.5) | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-jbilo-iw-polymarket-0x9dc1f00053d8d17456f4ab9af1182cbbc8a244303bd6df5c8fe29a67c9da3abe |
| FC Gifu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-fc-gif-polymarket-0xc2a30acf8595cda38cdf9ddce26e0d8d591c59ed085c912592d0a8027540e6c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x99c50343946e8b33ee41d8c1c5162c6cc993dadadb0ffed6ee05f95784386f42 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5) | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x1852d18e0a0dafb61e1e56b56bbf939e15f90a9fda5e851a5b6fd6dee03e1f72 |
| Júbilo Iwata (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-jbilo-iw-polymarket-0x077801ccd318481da22b45a47be6e7f377e225734b5d5f4608451ddefd153ead |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x17df3fdd9ae468ca339d552365e8b3fcb832dc058c848ee984ec609927e93a78 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x3a25257752ae203ce7e44aaf9f83b67e7af6cee3a7fff4ce75b267ea89272e6c |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-polymarket-0x992a3f1a9f252274f4df1be65647a7e0f96a20114685b4e80df541e7f9623909 |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Júbilo Iwata (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Gifu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Gifu (-1.5) +3pp 39→42¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-jbilo-iwata
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-jbilo-iwata-more-markets-jbilo-iwata
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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