# Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in June 2026

> At least 40 leads at 95%, runner-up 87% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maxshipshormuz
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:49.412Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-07

## Headline

- Leader: At least 40 at 95%
- Runner-up: At least 50 at 87%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $124K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40 | 95¢ | +7pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-daily-number-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxmaxshipshormuz-26jun30-al40 |
| At least 50 | 87¢ | +12pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-daily-number-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxmaxshipshormuz-26jun30-al50 |
| At least 60 | 53¢ | −1pp | $40K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-daily-number-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxmaxshipshormuz-26jun30-al60 |
| At least 80 | 11¢ | +1pp | $47K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-daily-number-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxmaxshipshormuz-26jun30-al80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 40 | At least 50 | At least 60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 37 | — | 24 |
| 2026-06-18 | 55 | — | 39 |
| 2026-06-23 | 42 | 23 | 12 |
| 2026-06-24 | 60 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-06-25 | 67 | 34 | 16 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · At least 40 +18pp 42→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · At least 80 −13pp 21→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · At least 60 −13pp 39→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · At least 40 −13pp 55→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · At least 50 +12pp 22→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates whether the Strait of Hormuz will see at least 60 vessel transits in a single day during June 2026. The 37-cent contract price implies roughly 37% probability, reflecting uncertainty about transit volumes through one of the world's critical shipping chokepoints. Daily transit counts depend on global oil demand, shipping schedules, geopolitical tensions affecting routing decisions, and seasonal patterns. The metric is specifically measured by IMF PortWatch data, which provides objective daily counts. Resolution depends entirely on whether PortWatch records a single day in June 2026 with 60 or more transits. Comparable historical data on typical Hormuz transit volumes and any announced disruptions or policy changes affecting the corridor would inform whether 60 represents a routine day or an unusually high volume.

### Key factors

- Historical daily transit baseline: typical Hormuz traffic patterns and whether 60 transits represents normal, elevated, or peak volume for that corridor
- Geopolitical risk events: any announced tensions, sanctions, or security incidents affecting shipping routes or vessel behavior during June 2026
- Global oil demand and shipping activity: seasonal demand fluctuations and whether June 2026 corresponds to high or low shipping periods
- IMF PortWatch methodology and data reliability: verification that the measurement criteria are consistent and that daily counts are publicly available and verifiable
- Alternative routing availability: whether economic or political factors would incentivize vessels to avoid the Strait, reducing daily call volumes below 60

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maxshipshormuz
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=maxshipshormuz
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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