# 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record — 3rd hottest

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/may-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record
Updated: 2026-06-11T19:20:50.876Z
Category: climate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-10

## Headline

- Leader: 2nd hottest at 96%
- Runner-up: 3rd hottest at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd hottest | 96¢ | +4pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/2026-may-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record-2nd-hottest-polymarket-0x0828dc65fa08e8995a310f68de96ff95af53cd1914df72ca01acdd7bac576571 |
| 3rd hottest | 4¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/2026-may-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record-3rd-hottest-polymarket-0xf3e31fd9275a993240f60a34457219ea553d33f1917329aed4633ddc13ac692d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2nd hottest | 3rd hottest |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 93 | 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | 100 | 1 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market assesses whether May 2026 will rank as the second-hottest May on instrumental temperature records, reflecting expectations that recent warming trends continue but don't reach record extremes. The 90% probability for second-hottest reflects near-certainty that May 2026 will finish in the top tier of May temperatures historically, with only small probability of either record-breaking heat or a cooler-than-expected month. The outcome depends on whether La Niña or El Niño conditions persist, regional weather patterns over the coming weeks, and how much seasonal warming materializes. The resolution will occur when meteorological organizations release official May 2026 temperature data, typically in early June, comparing global mean temperatures against the satellite and instrumental record dating to 1979 or longer historical periods depending on the dataset used.

### Key factors

- Current global temperature anomalies and whether recent warming acceleration persists through May 2026
- Strength and persistence of ocean circulation patterns (ENSO phase) affecting tropical heat distribution
- Northern hemisphere late spring weather patterns, particularly high-latitude warming contributions to global averages
- Comparison baseline: May 2025 and recent May rankings to establish what constitutes first, second, or third-hottest
- Official temperature dataset release and reconciliation across major agencies (NASA GISS, NOAA, Copernicus, UAH) in early June 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=may-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record

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