# Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election

> Alexi Giannoulias leads at 55%, runner-up 7% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mayorchi
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.945Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-23

## Headline

- Leader: Alexi Giannoulias at 55%
- Runner-up: Brandon Johnson at 7%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias | 55¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-chicago-mayoral-election-alexi-gianno-kalshi-kxmayorchi-27-agia |
| Brandon Johnson | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-chicago-mayoral-election-brandon-john-kalshi-kxmayorchi-27-bjoh |
| Maria Pappas | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-chicago-mayoral-election-maria-pappas-kalshi-kxmayorchi-27-mpap |
| Joe Holberg | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-chicago-mayoral-election-joe-holberg-kalshi-kxmayorchi-27-jhol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexi Giannoulias | Brandon Johnson | Maria Pappas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | 48 | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 49 | 8 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 54 | — | 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | 58 | — | 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | 56 | — | 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | 57 | — | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Alexi Giannoulias +5pp 53→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Alexi Giannoulias +4pp 55→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Maria Pappas +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 46% probability represents the market's assessment of the leading candidate's likelihood of winning Chicago's mayoral election. This probability reflects a competitive race where the frontrunner holds a substantial but not dominant position. The level is driven by the candidate's current polling standing, name recognition, and fundraising relative to other contenders. Factors that could shift the probability include upcoming debates, campaign events, voter turnout patterns in key precincts, and how undecided voters break in the final weeks before the election. The single biggest catalyst will be Election Day results, but intermediate developments such as major endorsements, debate performances, or changes in voter enthusiasm could meaningfully move markets beforehand.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate's current polling position versus the runner-up (who is priced at 5%) suggests a competitive but not decisive advantage
- Kalshi contract volume and pricing across the 4 outcomes indicates active market participation and disaggregement among traders
- The 46% price reflects roughly 2-to-1 odds against, implying significant uncertainty about the ultimate winner despite the frontrunner's current lead
- Turnout and demographic shifts in Chicago precincts could materially affect the outcome given typical mayoral election volatility
- Campaign momentum and late-breaking endorsements or scandals have historically moved mayoral race probabilities meaningfully in the weeks before voting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mayorchi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mayorchi
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.