# Big Walk Metacritic score

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 69% across 14 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mc
Updated: 2026-07-29T21:20:50.110Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-13

## Headline

- Probability: 69% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $633

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 85 | 59¢ | −1pp | $222 | kalshi | /markets/marvel-tokon-fighting-souls-metacritic-score-above-kalshi-kxmc-mar-85 |
| Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 | 71¢ | −3pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/halo-campaign-evolved-metacritic-score-above-80-kalshi-kxmc-hal-80 |
| Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 90 | 22¢ | −1pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/marvel-tokon-fighting-souls-metacritic-score-above-kalshi-kxmc-mar-90 |
| Above 85 | 25¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-85-kalshi-kxmc-bea-85 |
| Above 70 | 95¢ | ±0 | $25 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-70-kalshi-kxmc-bea-70 |
| Above 90 | 9¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/big-walk-metacritic-score-above-90-kalshi-kxmc-big-90 |
| Above 80 | 65¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/big-walk-metacritic-score-above-80-kalshi-kxmc-big-80 |
| Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 70 | 96¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/marvel-tokon-fighting-souls-metacritic-score-above-kalshi-kxmc-mar-70 |
| Above 80 | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-80-kalshi-kxmc-bea-80 |
| Above 40 | 95¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-40-kalshi-kxmc-bea-40 |
| Above 50 | 94¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-50-kalshi-kxmc-bea-50 |
| Above 60 | 93¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-60-kalshi-kxmc-bea-60 |
| Above 65 | 96¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-65-kalshi-kxmc-bea-65 |
| Above 75 | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/beast-of-reincarnation-metacritic-score-above-75-kalshi-kxmc-bea-75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 65 |
| 2026-07-22 | 74 |
| 2026-07-29 | 60 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 −30pp 82→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 +11pp 59→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 +7pp 52→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 +3pp 71→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-29 · Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 −3pp 75→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 66% probability reflects market consensus that Big Walk will achieve a Metacritic score above 40 when it releases. Metacritic scores aggregate professional game reviews on a 0-100 scale and serve as a key quality benchmark in the gaming industry. The score will be determined upon release and influenced by the game's technical performance, gameplay mechanics, narrative quality, and how well it meets critic expectations relative to its genre. The main catalyst for resolving this prediction is the game's actual release date, at which point Metacritic will publish aggregated critic reviews. Downward pressure on the probability could come from negative pre-release coverage or critic previews, while upward movement could result from strong early reviews or positive media reception leading up to launch.

### Key factors

- The game's Metacritic score depends entirely on aggregated professional critic reviews at launch; no review embargo or early critic access data is currently public
- Similar games in the same genre or from the same developer provide baseline expectations for what Metacritic scores are achievable
- Big Walk's development status, announced feature set, and any public gameplay footage or previews influence critic sentiment before scoring
- The threshold of 40 represents a modest quality bar; most commercially released games score above this level, suggesting market confidence in basic competence
- Contract volume at $50 24-hour volume is relatively thin, indicating limited liquidity and potential wider bid-ask spreads that could reflect higher uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mc

## License

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