# Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46100 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026

> Above 45800 leads at 88%, runner-up 86% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcd
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.546Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 45800 at 88%
- Runner-up: Above 0% at 86%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $301

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45800 | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-45800-tota-kalshi-kxmcd-26augrest-45800 |
| Above 0% | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-0-global-c-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-0 |
| Above 0.5% | 80¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-05-global-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-0.5 |
| Above 45900 | 75¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-45900-tota-kalshi-kxmcd-26augrest-45900 |
| Above 1% | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-1-global-c-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-1 |
| Above 1.5% | 57¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-15-global-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-1.5 |
| Above 46000 | 55¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-46000-tota-kalshi-kxmcd-26augrest-46000 |
| Above 2% | 46¢ | +1pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-2-global-c-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-2.0 |
| Above 46100 | 39¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-46100-tota-kalshi-kxmcd-26augrest-46100 |
| Above 2.5% | 21¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-25-global-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-2.5 |
| Above 3% | 19¢ | −2pp | $219 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-3-global-c-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-3.0 |
| Above 46200 | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-46200-tota-kalshi-kxmcd-26augrest-46200 |
| Above 3.5% | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-35-global-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-3.5 |
| Above 4% | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-4-global-c-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-4.0 |
| Above 4.5% | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mcdonalds-corporation-report-above-45-global-kalshi-kxmcd-26augcomp-4.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 45800 | Above 0% | Above 0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 57 | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 21 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 87 | 85 | 79 |
| 2026-06-24 | — | 86 | 79 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 85 | 79 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 86 | 79 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 46000 −6pp 62→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 3% +5pp 12→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 3% −5pp 17→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 2% +4pp 42→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 2% +4pp 47→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether McDonald's will operate more than 46,100 restaurants globally in its Q2 2026 earnings report, due in late July 2026. The 88% probability reflects strong confidence in continued systemwide expansion. McDonald's has historically grown its restaurant count year-over-year, though the pace varies with economic conditions, franchise development activity, and company strategy. The main uncertainty centers on whether closures in specific markets might offset new openings. Resolution depends entirely on the official Q2 2026 restaurant count disclosed in McDonald's earnings announcement, expected in late July. Market pricing also suggests confidence in moderate comparable sales growth, which typically correlates with expansion willingness.

### Key factors

- McDonald's reported approximately 41,215 systemwide restaurants as of Q1 2026; achieving 46,100+ requires ~4,900 net new openings in one quarter, or the question may reference a different baseline or measurement date
- Franchise development velocity and approval rates in key markets (US, China, India, Europe) directly determine new unit additions; slowdowns in any major region would pressure the outcome downward
- Net restaurant closures from market exits, underperformance, or economic pressure in mature markets (e.g., Russia, UK) offset gross openings and represent the primary downside risk
- The Q2 2026 earnings release date and the exact restaurant count methodology McDonald's uses in its official disclosure will mechanically determine the outcome; no discretion or interpretation applies

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mcd

## License

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