# Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 34%, runner-up 19% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcdonaldconf
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.409Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 34%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 19%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcdonald-be-confirmed-as-us-attorney-fo-kalshi-kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17-jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 19¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcdonald-be-confirmed-as-us-attorney-fo-kalshi-kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17-oct01 |
| Before Aug 8, 2026 | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcdonald-be-confirmed-as-us-attorney-fo-kalshi-kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17-aug08 |
| Before Jul 18, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcdonald-be-confirmed-as-us-attorney-fo-kalshi-kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17-jul18 |
| Before Jul 25, 2026 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcdonald-be-confirmed-as-us-attorney-fo-kalshi-kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17-jul25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Aug 8, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 40 | 24 | 21 |
| 2026-06-18 | 71 | 73 | 42 |
| 2026-06-19 | 75 | — | 38 |
| 2026-06-23 | 33 | 17 | 10 |
| 2026-06-24 | 35 | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 35 | — | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −21pp 75→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −21pp 73→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −17pp 52→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −15pp 54→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −14pp 31→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 95% chance that James McDonald will be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before the end of 2026. The high probability reflects market confidence in confirmation occurring within the remaining timeframe, though shorter-term contracts show more uncertainty—traders see roughly 47% odds of confirmation by mid-July and 82% by October 1st. The confirmation timeline depends on Senate Judiciary Committee scheduling, floor debate duration, and whether any substantive opposition emerges during the vetting process. The main catalyst is the Senate's confirmation vote itself, which will occur once the committee advances the nomination and leadership schedules floor time. Current trading patterns suggest most traders expect confirmation in August-September 2026.

### Key factors

- Senate Judiciary Committee has not yet voted on the nomination; committee scheduling determines when floor consideration begins
- The probability gradient across dates (47% by Jul 18, 95% by Jan 1) indicates market expects confirmation in late summer or early fall 2026
- No publicly reported holds, objections, or controversy has emerged around the nominee as of mid-June 2026
- U.S. Attorney confirmations typically pass with bipartisan support unless significant ethical or legal issues surface during vetting
- The 14-week window between now and January 1 provides substantial time for a multi-stage confirmation process

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcdonaldconf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mcdonaldconf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.