# Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcmorrowendorse
Updated: 2026-08-02T19:20:51.635Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: No one at 89%
- Runner-up: Abdul El-Sayed at 7%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $201

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No one | 89¢ | +6pp | $171 | kalshi | /markets/will-mallory-mcmorrow-endorse-no-one-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxmcmorrowendorse-26aug04-noone |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 7¢ | −2pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-mallory-mcmorrow-endorse-abdul-el-sayed-in-th-kalshi-kxmcmorrowendorse-26aug04-aels |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No one | Abdul El-Sayed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 62 | 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | 83 | 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | 89 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-29 · No one +21pp 62→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-01 · No one +6pp 83→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Abdul El-Sayed −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market participants currently assess a 71% probability that Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow will not endorse any candidate in the 2026 U.S. Senate race before August 4, 2026, with smaller probabilities assigned to endorsements of Abdul El-Sayed (11%) or Haley Stevens (16%). This reflects uncertainty about McMorrow's political positioning and timing in what appears to be a competitive Democratic primary. The outcome hinges on McMorrow's strategic calculation regarding whether an early endorsement aids her political influence or constrains her options. The August 4 deadline is imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. Primary election dynamics, intra-party relationships, and McMorrow's public statements over the next week will largely determine the outcome, with any formal endorsement announcement immediately resolving the question.

### Key factors

- McMorrow has not publicly committed to endorsing any candidate as of July 28, 2026, with only 7 days until the resolution deadline
- The market assigns 11% to El-Sayed and 16% to Stevens, suggesting uncertainty about which candidate—if any—McMorrow might support
- High 24-hour trading volume ($989-$1,010 on top contracts) indicates active disagreement among participants about the likelihood of an endorsement
- Early August timing may coincide with Michigan Democratic Party activities, candidate events, or debate schedules that could trigger public endorsement announcements
- McMorrow's prior political positioning and public relationships with El-Sayed and Stevens would influence which candidate she might endorse if she chooses to do so

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mcmorrowendorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mcmorrowendorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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