# MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner

> Adrian Boafo leads at 66%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/md05-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.374Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Adrian Boafo at 66%
- Runner-up: Harry Dunn at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | 66¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/md-05-democratic-primary-winner-adrian-boafo-polymarket-0x9468419631bad2d636e689fc04058df3d2989e29a15294483d3774d37ec2ee7f |
| Harry Dunn | 16¢ | ±0 | $14 | polymarket | /markets/md-05-democratic-primary-winner-harry-dunn-polymarket-0x851531bd074b8a6724037b28bea9a762b99cb5ccaa166965a94c024b047aa9f6 |
| Wala Blegay | 3¢ | +15pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/md-05-democratic-primary-winner-wala-blegay-polymarket-0x2b021d15d7474a40e4da0e01a52861a3a73539ef7543dc68d5b08885e6ab3e29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Adrian Boafo | Harry Dunn | Wala Blegay |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 55 | 28 | 14 |
| 2026-05-22 | 63 | 22 | 5 |
| 2026-05-28 | 67 | 17 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 17 | 28 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-29 · Wala Blegay +15pp 13→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Adrian Boafo +7pp 56→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Wala Blegay +6pp 3→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Wala Blegay +5pp 5→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Wala Blegay −4pp 7→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market currently assigns Adrian Boafo a 54% probability of winning the MD-05 Democratic primary, while runner-up Harry Dunn sits at 21% and other candidates trail substantially. The significant gap between the leader and challengers reflects market participants' assessment that Boafo holds a structural advantage, though the race remains competitive given that Dunn and theoretical consolidation among other candidates represent a material threat. Trading volume concentrates heavily on the Boafo contract, suggesting active re-evaluation as new information emerges. Primary outcomes typically hinge on organizational strength, donor support, endorsements, and turnout patterns in the district. The resolution of this contract depends on the Maryland primary election date and official results certification.

### Key factors

- Boafo maintains a 33-point margin over the second-place finisher in current pricing
- Harry Dunn contract trades at 21 cents, indicating meaningful probability for a single alternative candidate
- Combined probability of all non-Boafo candidates exceeds 46%, creating potential coalition scenarios
- Minimal recent 24-hour trading volume outside Boafo ($21 vs. $0 on alternatives) suggests limited price discovery on challengers
- Primary outcome determined by official election results and margin thresholds defining winner-take-all contract resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/md05-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=md05-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.