# Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mdprimary
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.030Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $64

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | 59¢ | +1pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-adrian-boafo-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-md-kalshi-kxmdprimary-05d26-aboa |
| Rushern Baker III | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rushern-baker-iii-be-the-democratic-nominee-f-kalshi-kxmdprimary-05d26-rbak |
| Harry Dunn | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-dunn-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-md-0-kalshi-kxmdprimary-05d26-hdun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 28 |
| 2026-04-25 | 35 |
| 2026-05-01 | 59 |
| 2026-05-08 | 36 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Rushern Baker III becomes the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 5th Congressional District. At 26%, the market suggests he is neither the frontrunner nor an unlikely candidate. The probability reflects uncertainty about the district's competitive dynamics, candidate field composition, and voter preferences in what appears to be an open seat or contested primary. Key drivers include whether other strong candidates enter the race, Baker's fundraising performance relative to rivals, and his name recognition and endorsement levels. The primary election date would be the critical juncture resolving this uncertainty, as it would determine whether Baker advances through the nomination process.

### Key factors

- The size and strength of the overall candidate field—whether Baker faces one main competitor or a crowded primary field
- Baker's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- Primary election timing and the date voters will actually cast ballots for the Democratic nomination
- Local endorsements from party officials, labor unions, and community organizations backing specific candidates
- Historical primary turnout patterns and voter demographics in MD-05 that may advantage or disadvantage particular candidate profiles

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mdprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mdprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.