# ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

> Joe Baldacci leads at 61%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.587Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Leader: Joe Baldacci at 61%
- Runner-up: Matthew Dunlap at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $145

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Baldacci | 61¢ | ±0 | $100 | polymarket | /markets/me-02-democratic-primary-winner-joe-baldacci-polymarket-0xb6f26187d7459a50e69881a10ec6b08c4c0ec028ad026de8318378959aed6b50 |
| Matthew Dunlap | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/me-02-democratic-primary-winner-matthew-dunlap-polymarket-0xdae8b5b3c2f5316fd6007b1faee1f3ad0d715f4fd3b0f83b3b0751c21292cfb2 |
| Jordan Wood | 13¢ | −3pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/me-02-democratic-primary-winner-jordan-wood-polymarket-0xd35e2b189a895c0a4dc9e2884a2cafaec0cadaefc08be06502e13eb0950e49ab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Joe Baldacci | Matthew Dunlap | Jordan Wood |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 41 | 27 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 55 | 28 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 30 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 62 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 62 | 24 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Matthew Dunlap −10pp 33→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Joe Baldacci +6pp 56→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Jordan Wood +4pp 13→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Joe Baldacci +3pp 62→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Joe Baldacci −3pp 65→62¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 55% probability reflects current market expectations for a specific Democratic primary outcome in Maine's second congressional district, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. The leading candidate holds a notable edge over the second-place contender at 32%, suggesting market participants perceive a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage. Primary outcomes typically shift based on candidate fundraising totals, polling data releases, and endorsement patterns in the weeks preceding election day. The most significant catalyst will be the primary election itself, which determines the definitive outcome. Until then, campaign developments—such as debate performance, organizational strength on the ground, or unexpected candidate withdrawals—could materially move probabilities in either direction.

### Key factors

- Current spread of 23 percentage points between the leading candidate (55%) and runner-up (32%) indicates market confidence in the leader but acknowledges meaningful uncertainty
- Trading volume across four separate contracts ($816–$775 per contract over 24 hours) suggests active participation but relatively modest liquidity for a U.S. primary prediction
- Polymarket prices cluster in the 16–80¢ range for related Democratic primary races, indicating voters across different races are being evaluated on different scales of viability
- The Maine-02 district's historical voting patterns and candidate name recognition will influence whether polling data or insider expectations diverge from market pricing
- Primary election date will serve as hard resolution point; any major campaign events or late-breaking endorsements before voting could shift the 55% baseline significantly

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=me02-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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