# ME-02 Republican Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-11T01:20:12.452Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Leader: Paul LePage at 96%
- Runner-up: James Clark at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $220

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 96¢ | +2pp | $220 | polymarket | /markets/me-02-republican-primary-winner-paul-lepage-polymarket-0xf5ca6fb6cef9f97956b68db06a3a7cc10ef4a8df39ffaeca149fb5b565f63bee |
| James Clark | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/me-02-republican-primary-winner-james-clark-polymarket-0xd4b9577d5640c162bc058907b44b36741d8fe4d10fcf4bbc977b096ca90519f3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Paul LePage | James Clark |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | 97 | 3 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 1 |
| 2026-05-29 | 99 | 2 |
| 2026-06-03 | 99 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 2 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | 100 | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 93% probability indicates that prediction-market participants view one particular candidate as heavily favored to win the ME-02 Republican primary. The high concentration reflects either a dominant frontrunner in polling and endorsements, or a field where one candidate has substantially outpaced competitors in fundraising and organizational capacity. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in public polling, major endorsements, or campaign developments. The primary election itself represents the key resolution event—voters' actual choices will determine the outcome. Contract volume and price consistency across markets suggest moderate but not exceptional interest in this specific race.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate maintains a 89-percentage-point spread over the runner-up (93% vs 4%), indicating markets perceive a substantial structural advantage rather than a close contest
- Similar Maine GOP primary races show varying market certainty levels, suggesting factors specific to ME-02 (candidate profile, district composition, opponent quality) are driving the high probability rather than a systematic pattern
- The 24-hour contract volume of approximately $23,457 on related races provides moderate liquidity but is lower than high-profile national races, indicating specialized rather than mainstream market participation
- Resolution depends entirely on the official primary election result, with no intermediate milestones or polling releases that would necessarily shift probabilities before ballots are cast
- The current 93% pricing implies roughly 7-in-100 odds of the runner-up or other candidate winning, a scenario that would require significant unexpected developments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=me02-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.