# Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02d
Updated: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dunlap | 29¢ | +17pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-dunlap-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxme02d-26-mdun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 6 |
| 2026-06-07 | 9 |
| 2026-06-14 | 26 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Matthew Dunlap +17pp 31→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Matthew Dunlap −11pp 42→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Matthew Dunlap −9pp 35→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Matthew Dunlap +9pp 33→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Matthew Dunlap +5pp 26→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Joe Baldacci will win the Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd congressional district. At 31%, the market is assigning roughly one-in-three odds to Baldacci becoming the Democratic nominee. The current level likely reflects uncertainty around candidate field composition and Baldacci's positioning within a potentially competitive primary. Factors that could shift this probability include the formal entry or withdrawal of other candidates, polling data showing changes in voter preference, and fundraising indicators revealing the relative strength of different campaigns. The primary election itself would ultimately resolve this market, though the specific date depends on Maine's election calendar and any special circumstances affecting the race. Primary performance and early election results would provide the most significant catalyst for reassessing the probability.

### Key factors

- Field composition: the emergence or non-emergence of credible alternative Democratic candidates would directly affect Baldacci's nomination odds
- Polling trends: direct measurement of voter preference among likely Democratic primary voters in ME-02
- Campaign fundraising and resources: relative financial capacity to build organization and reach voters
- Turnout patterns: Democratic primary participation rates can significantly shift outcomes in lower-salience elections
- Election results from comparable recent Maine races: historical patterns in district-level primary competition and nominee selection

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/me02d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=me02d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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