# Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1051.5 feet in May 2026

> Above 1041 Ft leads at 93%, runner-up 92% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mead
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.363Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1041 Ft at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 1041.5 Ft at 92%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1041 Ft | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1041 |
| Above 1041.5 Ft | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1041p5 |
| Above 1050 Ft | 91¢ | ±0 | $955 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26may-a1050 |
| Above 1042 Ft | 91¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1042 |
| Above 1042.5 Ft | 89¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1042p5 |
| Above 1043 Ft | 83¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1043 |
| Above 1043.5 Ft | 77¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1043p5 |
| Above 1044 Ft | 65¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1044 |
| Above 1044.5 Ft | 44¢ | +19pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1044p5 |
| Above 1045 Ft | 23¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1045 |
| Above 1045.5 Ft | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1045p5 |
| Above 1046 Ft | 7¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1046 |
| Above 1046.5 Ft | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lake-meads-end-of-month-water-elevation-be-ab-kalshi-kxmead-26jun-a1046p5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1041 Ft | Above 1041.5 Ft | Above 1050 Ft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | — | — | 63 |
| 2026-05-21 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-05-24 | 92 | 91 | 84 |
| 2026-05-25 | 91 | 84 | 91 |
| 2026-05-26 | 93 | 89 | 93 |
| 2026-05-27 | 94 | 93 | 94 |
| 2026-05-28 | 93 | 92 | 94 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · Above 1044.5 Ft −32pp 36→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Above 1044.5 Ft +23pp 4→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 1044.5 Ft +19pp 27→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Above 1050 Ft +15pp 69→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 1050 Ft +8pp 61→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Lake Mead's water elevation will exceed 1051.5 feet by May 31, 2026. The current 6% implied probability suggests this threshold is seen as unlikely given historical patterns and recent inflow conditions. Lake Mead's elevation depends primarily on Colorado River water releases, snowmelt timing in the Rocky Mountains, and regional precipitation. The steep probability gradient across the contract range (96% for 1048.5 feet down to 6% for 1051.5 feet) indicates traders view even modest elevation gains above 1049 feet as increasingly unlikely. Resolution occurs on May 31, 2026, when the Bureau of Reclamation publishes the official end-of-month elevation reading. Between now and then, weekly elevation data and upstream dam release decisions will provide incremental information about whether inflows remain sufficient to push the lake higher.

### Key factors

- Current Lake Mead elevation as of mid-May 2026 and trend direction over the previous 7-10 days
- Projected Colorado River unregulated inflow forecasts through May 31, including snowmelt runoff from upper basin states
- Release schedules from Glen Canyon Dam and other upstream facilities, which directly control water entering Lake Mead
- Historical comparison: Lake Mead elevation patterns in May across prior years and current water-year precipitation totals versus normal
- Weekly Bureau of Reclamation elevation bulletins and any official updates to monthly or annual water-sharing allocation assumptions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mead

## License

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