# Measles cases in U.S. by April 30 — 1800

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:52.499Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 39% / Polymarket 23% — 16pp spread
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4000 | 31¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-4000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-4000 |
| Above 6000 | 14¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-6000 |
| Above 365ㅤ | 4¢ | −1pp | $777 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t365 |
| ↑3k | 62¢ | +1pp | $372 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-3k-polymarket-0xe815a6ed1772fcd0b2bd5b4bfbb3e095ac17937316e6afc510e8d97fa3edf3e5 |
| Above 8000 | 11¢ | −2pp | $264 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-8000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-8000 |
| At least 5000 | 31¢ | +2pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-5000 |
| ↑10k | 10¢ | ±0 | $144 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-10k-polymarket-0x1d916047bbca1be9808076a0590c17ff113fb92986a4b4bc7f0f962642158827 |
| ↑4k | 30¢ | −2pp | $116 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-4k-polymarket-0x15a76480d8b6c81b118804d613476cffada2bea80dcaef5cf449200c81bb58c7 |
| Above 10000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-10000-measles-cases-in-202-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-10000 |
| Above 360ㅤ | 17¢ | −3pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t360 |
| ↑5k | 13¢ | −2pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-5k-polymarket-0xd15f77a921a1c8f807ce2c53a5c24a60876ed383c429445cd7f380a5ec8fe9ea |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ | 61¢ | +14pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26may12-t304.0 |
| ↑7.5k | 10¢ | ±0 | $32 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-75k-polymarket-0xfa3dc3876b9210267914d74d4686a2c71bec3bf37bc1dc059a70f3e3e41ca1a7 |
| Above 350ㅤ | 84¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t350 |
| ↑12.5k | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-125k-polymarket-0xf84585b48f83e2630a7b5f60b6e43188f29f1d68206685aa3753db065e6bdc09 |
| At least 2000 | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-2000 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?: Above 288.0ㅤ | 95¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26may12-t288.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 308.0ㅤ?: Above 308.0ㅤ | 25¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26may12-t308.0 |
| Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ?: Above 6.72ㅤ | 41¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-average-price-ground-beef-100-b-kalshi-kxusgbeef-26may12-t6.72 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 48 |
| 2026-04-19 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Above 350ㅤ +23pp 47→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ +14pp 47→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · ↑3k −12pp 69→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Above 350ㅤ +8pp 71→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Above 6000 −7pp 19→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=measles-cases-us-april-30

## License

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