# Measles cases in U.S. by May 31 — 1925

> 2000 leads at 38%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.932Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 2000 at 38%
- Runner-up: 2200 at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 38¢ | +18pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-by-may-31-2000-polymarket-0x0d2c9b8bbc81ef294b72a82db21b85dafaab1dbf9f7c1e3aebe531ad7bfc8e2e |
| 2200 | 5¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-by-may-31-2200-polymarket-0x4099154492fe263d61daf66377d25f9a260aa70d00b7aae48d2b2a4463baa29c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2000 | 2200 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 10 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-05-28 | 43 | 4 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · 2000 −23pp 48→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · 2000 +22pp 10→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · 2000 +18pp 25→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · 2000 +12pp 32→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · 2000 +10pp 44→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market predicts whether U.S. measles cases will total 1,925 or fewer by May 31, 2026. The 96% probability reflects confidence that cases will remain below this threshold, with only 12 days remaining until resolution. Measles case counts depend on ongoing transmission rates, vaccination coverage, and outbreak containment efforts. The market assigns roughly equal probability (68–96%) to staying below 2,000 cases versus falling below 1,925, suggesting traders expect a relatively narrow final tally. Resolution occurs automatically on May 31 when CDC reports cumulative 2026 case data. Current momentum and the short timeframe suggest the outcome is largely determined by present transmission trends.

### Key factors

- CDC reported measles surveillance data through mid-May 2026 will indicate whether year-to-date cases have accelerated or plateaued relative to contract thresholds
- Vaccination rates and outbreak control measures in high-risk populations directly affect transmission velocity in the final 12 days
- Any large institutional or healthcare outbreak detected and reported before May 31 could push cumulative cases across the 1,925 threshold
- The 68¢ price on the 1,950-case contract implies traders see meaningful probability of the final count landing between 1,925 and 1,950
- Low trading volume ($35–$232 per contract in 24 hours) suggests limited liquidity and potential for price movements on new case reports

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=measles-cases-us-may-31

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.