# Measles cases in U.S. in 2026 — ↑7.5k

> ↑3k leads at 59%, runner-up 29% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:53.867Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↑3k at 59%
- Runner-up: ↑4k at 29%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $216

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑3k | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-3k-polymarket-0xe815a6ed1772fcd0b2bd5b4bfbb3e095ac17937316e6afc510e8d97fa3edf3e5 |
| ↑4k | 29¢ | −2pp | $116 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-4k-polymarket-0x15a76480d8b6c81b118804d613476cffada2bea80dcaef5cf449200c81bb58c7 |
| ↑5k | 13¢ | −2pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-5k-polymarket-0xd15f77a921a1c8f807ce2c53a5c24a60876ed383c429445cd7f380a5ec8fe9ea |
| ↑7.5k | 10¢ | ±0 | $27 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-75k-polymarket-0xfa3dc3876b9210267914d74d4686a2c71bec3bf37bc1dc059a70f3e3e41ca1a7 |
| ↑10k | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-10k-polymarket-0x1d916047bbca1be9808076a0590c17ff113fb92986a4b4bc7f0f962642158827 |
| ↑12.5k | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-125k-polymarket-0xf84585b48f83e2630a7b5f60b6e43188f29f1d68206685aa3753db065e6bdc09 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑3k | ↑4k | ↑5k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 87 | 69 | 47 |
| 2026-04-18 | 68 | 50 | 33 |
| 2026-04-19 | 65 | 48 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 69 | 34 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 69 | 36 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 62 | 28 | 13 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · ↑3k −12pp 69→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · ↑4k −6pp 36→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑5k −4pp 21→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · ↑3k +4pp 57→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · ↑4k −3pp 36→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 61% probability that the U.S. will see more than 7,500 measles cases in 2026. The forecast reflects current vaccination coverage rates, regional outbreaks, and travel patterns that affect disease spread. Measles cases depend heavily on immunization levels in vulnerable populations; areas with lower vaccination rates face higher transmission risk. The probability could shift based on spring/summer outbreak data as it becomes available, and final 2026 case counts won't be known until early 2027. CDC surveillance reports and any emerging clusters in coming months will be the primary indicators shaping expectations. Related markets show traders estimate under 4,000 cases at 31 cents, suggesting meaningful disagreement about severity thresholds.

### Key factors

- U.S. childhood vaccination coverage rates (MMR) remain the strongest determinant—currently around 94% nationally, but regional disparities exist in pockets with 85% or lower coverage
- Measles cases in 2025 and early 2026 will establish baseline transmission dynamics; January-April 2026 case data is the nearest leading indicator
- International travel and importation from regions with ongoing transmission can trigger local outbreaks; outbreak origins are typically travel-related
- The market prices the 4,000-case threshold at 31 cents, implying significant divergence about how high 2026 cases will actually climb
- Clustering of cases around school years and summer travel seasons means surveillance patterns from May-September 2026 will heavily influence final resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles-cases-us
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=measles-cases-us

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.