# Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026

> Above 3000 leads at 85%, runner-up 31% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:51.093Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3000 at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 4000 at 31%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $238

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3000 | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-3000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-3000 |
| Above 4000 | 31¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-4000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-4000 |
| Above 6000 | 12¢ | +1pp | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-6000 |
| Above 8000 | 10¢ | +1pp | $136 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-8000-measles-cases-in-2026-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-8000 |
| Above 10000 | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-10000-measles-cases-in-202-kalshi-kxmeasles-26-10000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3000 | Above 4000 | Above 6000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 90 | 34 | 13 |
| 2026-06-15 | 89 | 31 | 11 |
| 2026-06-21 | 88 | 36 | — |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 36 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 87 | 33 | 14 |
| 2026-06-28 | 85 | 32 | 13 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 4000 −3pp 36→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether the United States will record more than 6,000 measles cases during 2026, with traders currently pricing a 31% probability. Measles case counts depend primarily on vaccination coverage rates and the emergence of new outbreaks in under-immunized populations. The resolution will be determined by confirmed case counts reported by the CDC, which publishes weekly surveillance data throughout the year. Key drivers include whether current vaccination momentum continues, whether new clusters emerge in specific communities, and international travel patterns that could introduce the virus. By mid-year, trend data from CDC reports will provide clarity on whether the U.S. is tracking toward this threshold or remaining well below it.

### Key factors

- U.S. measles vaccination coverage rates for MMR, particularly among school-age children and new birth cohorts
- Number and size of measles outbreaks in communities with below-average immunization rates, tracked via CDC surveillance reports
- CDC weekly case counts through June 2026, which would establish whether the pace is on track to reach 6,000 by year-end
- International travel-associated introductions and secondary transmission chains, especially given global measles activity
- State and local public health response effectiveness, including vaccination campaign intensity and outbreak containment measures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/measles
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=measles

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.