# Will Die Linke win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mecklenburgvorpommern
Updated: 2026-09-24T13:20:51.813Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-09-20

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $490

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 48¢ | −9pp | $379 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-win-the-2026-mecklenburg-vorpommern-state-kalshi-kxmecklenburgvorpommern-26sep20-afd |
| SPD | 52¢ | +5pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-spd-win-the-2026-mecklenburg-vorpommern-state-kalshi-kxmecklenburgvorpommern-26sep20-spd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 86 |
| 2026-09-11 | 49 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48 |
| 2026-09-19 | 46 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · SPD +24pp 23→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · AfD −20pp 69→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · AfD −9pp 49→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · SPD +5pp 47→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Die Linke will win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, scheduled for September 2026. The 50% level suggests Die Linke is competitive but faces significant uncertainty. Current polling and recent election dynamics in this eastern German state will drive movements: Die Linke's ability to maintain or grow support, AfD's performance, and SPD's positioning all matter. The election itself on September 26, 2026, will provide definitive results. Between now and then, published opinion polls, campaign developments, and any shifts in the political landscape could shift probability materially. The outcome depends on vote share distribution and coalition dynamics—whether Die Linke achieves a plurality depends on how votes split across SPD, AfD, Greens, and other parties.

### Key factors

- Published polling averages in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for Die Linke support in the weeks before September 26, 2026
- Relative performance of AfD and SPD in the state, since a three-way split affects Die Linke's plurality chances
- Die Linke's historical performance in this state and recent trend in support levels
- Coalition and governing dynamics post-election, which may affect how Die Linke's plurality position is valued
- Any major campaign events, scandals, or policy announcements affecting voter preferences in the final weeks before the election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mecklenburgvorpommern
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mecklenburgvorpommern
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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