# Will Martha Stewart be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediacoversi
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.052Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Nader | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooks-nader-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-i-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-bro |
| Camille Kostek | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-camille-kostek-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-cam |
| Olivia Dunne | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-dunne-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-i-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-oli |
| Jordan Chiles | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-chiles-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-jor |
| Ciara | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ciara-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-illustra-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-cia |
| Yumi Nu | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yumi-nu-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-illust-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-yum |
| Haley Kalil | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-haley-kalil-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-il-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-hal |
| Nina Agdal | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nina-agdal-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-ill-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-nin |
| Kate Upton | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kate-upton-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-ill-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-kat |
| Irina Shayk | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-irina-shayk-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-il-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-iri |
| Ashley Graham | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashley-graham-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-ash |
| Hunter McGrady | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-mcgrady-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-hun |
| Ella Halikas | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ella-halikas-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-i-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-ell |
| Chrissy Teigen | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chrissy-teigen-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-chr |
| Kim Petras | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kim-petras-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-ill-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-kim |
| Martha Stewart | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-martha-stewart-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-mar |
| Lauren Chan | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lauren-chan-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sports-il-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-lau |
| Hailey Van Lith | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hailey-van-lith-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sport-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-hai |
| Jasmine Sanders | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-sanders-be-on-the-cover-of-2027-sport-kalshi-kxmediacoversi-27-jas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 8 |
| 2026-06-29 | 11 |
| 2026-07-06 | 20 |
| 2026-07-10 | 15 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Ciara −9pp 16→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Hailey Van Lith −5pp 16→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Haley Kalil −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Martha Stewart will be selected as the cover model for Sports Illustrated's 2027 Swimsuit Issue. The 26% probability reflects active betting interest on Kalshi, where Stewart competes against younger models like Ella Halikas (42¢), Haley Kalil (19¢), and others. The current level likely reflects Stewart's recent high-profile career resurgence, including her Netflix series and renewed cultural relevance, balanced against traditional industry conventions that historically favor younger models for the swimsuit issue. The probability will shift based on any official announcements from Sports Illustrated regarding their 2027 cover selection process or confirmed cover model. The main resolution point occurs when SI officially announces their 2027 Swimsuit Issue cover, expected sometime in late 2026 or early 2027 before the physical issue release.

### Key factors

- Martha Stewart is 84 years old as of 2026, making her significantly older than typical SI Swimsuit cover models, which historically skews toward models in their 20s-30s
- Stewart's recent media prominence through Netflix collaborations and brand partnerships may increase her cultural visibility and appeal to SI's editorial team
- SI has occasionally featured non-traditional cover models and personalities, creating precedent but remaining statistically rare in the publication's history
- Competing models like Ella Halikas show higher betting probability (42¢), suggesting market participants view younger alternatives as more likely choices
- No confirmed announcement from SI regarding their 2027 cover selection criteria or timeline has been made public as of May 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediacoversi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mediacoversi

## License

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