# Will Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson be on Jimmy Kimmel Live! before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 16 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediaguestkimmel
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:50:53.878Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Holland | 58¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-holland-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-20-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-tom |
| Taylor Swift | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-tay |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leonardo-dicaprio-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-bef-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-leo |
| Timothée Chalamet | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-timothe-chalamet-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-befo-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-tim |
| Ryan Gosling | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-gosling-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-rya |
| Jennifer Lawrence | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jennifer-lawrence-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-bef-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-jen |
| Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-li-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-dwa |
| Scarlett Johansson | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scarlett-johansson-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-be-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-sca |
| Beyoncé | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2027-be-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-bey |
| Billie Eilish | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-bil |
| Bad Bunny | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2027-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-bad |
| Ariana Grande | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-ari |
| Post Malone | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-20-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-pos |
| Harry Styles | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-har |
| Kim Kardashian | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kim-kardashian-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-kim |
| Kylie Jenner | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kylie-jenner-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-kyl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 47 |
| 2026-04-19 | 67 |
| 2026-04-26 | 60 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Tom Holland −4pp 62→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market measures the likelihood that Dwayne Johnson will appear as a guest on Jimmy Kimmel Live! at any point before January 1, 2027. The 20% probability reflects a relatively low but non-negligible chance of an appearance within the next seven months. The probability is shaped by Johnson's current career demands and promotional schedule against the frequency of his late-night television appearances. Jimmy Kimmel's show typically books major celebrities during film and entertainment promotion cycles, so any major Rock film releases or promotional campaigns between now and year-end would be the primary catalyst that could shift this probability. The resolution depends on whether an appearance actually occurs, making near-term entertainment news and Rock's production slate critical monitoring points through December 2026.

### Key factors

- Dwayne Johnson's upcoming film release schedule and associated promotional obligations through December 2026
- Historical frequency of Johnson's appearances on late-night talk shows, particularly Kimmel's program, over the past 2-3 years
- Whether Jimmy Kimmel Live! continues regular operations without major disruption (market notes 22% probability he could be fired before 2027)
- The relative appeal and timing of other competing late-night venues and media appearances Johnson might prioritize
- Any announced surprise appearances or tour dates that might bring Johnson to Los Angeles during the contract period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediaguestkimmel
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mediaguestkimmel

## License

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