# Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 5, 2026

> Before Oct 1, 2026 leads at 78%, runner-up 50% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleasedateahs
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.328Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 78%
- Runner-up: Before Sep 23, 2026 at 50%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 78¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-horror-story-season-13-premiere-be-r-kalshi-kxmediareleasedateahs-26-oct01-ame |
| Before Sep 23, 2026 | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-horror-story-season-13-premiere-be-r-kalshi-kxmediareleasedateahs-26-sep23-ame |
| Before Sep 19, 2026 | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-horror-story-season-13-premiere-be-r-kalshi-kxmediareleasedateahs-26-sep19-ame |
| Before Sep 12, 2026 | 27¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-horror-story-season-13-premiere-be-r-kalshi-kxmediareleasedateahs-26-sep12-ame |
| Before Sep 5, 2026 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-horror-story-season-13-premiere-be-r-kalshi-kxmediareleasedateahs-26-sep05-ame |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Sep 23, 2026 | Before Sep 19, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 37 |
| 2026-05-29 | 77 | 47 | 37 |
| 2026-06-11 | 78 | 48 | 35 |
| 2026-06-18 | 78 | 50 | 35 |
| 2026-06-23 | 78 | 49 | 35 |
| 2026-06-24 | 78 | 50 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 77 | — | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents traders' assessment that American Horror Story Season 13 will premiere in the USA before October 1, 2026—roughly four and a half months from now. The 85% confidence reflects the show's established fall premiere pattern and production timeline, though actual release dates depend on FX's scheduling decisions and any production delays. The contract pricing reveals skepticism about an early September premiere (19%), with most traders betting on a mid-to-late September window. The key uncertainty is whether the network will maintain its typical September slot or shift to October, which would occur if post-production extends beyond expectations or competing programming needs adjustment.

### Key factors

- American Horror Story has historically premiered in September, with Season 12 debuting September 22, 2023, establishing a precedent traders are pricing in
- The contract cascade shows a sharp jump from 19¢ (before Sep 5) to 85¢ (before Oct 1), indicating traders cluster expectations around late September rather than early fall
- FX's official announcement of a specific premiere date would immediately resolve uncertainty; as of May 2026, no public confirmation of Season 13's exact air date appears reflected in current market pricing
- Production completion status and post-production timeline for Season 13 directly determine whether the show can feasibly launch in September or faces delay into October
- Competing fall programming schedules and FX network priorities may influence whether Season 13 secures its traditional September slot or faces rescheduling

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleasedateahs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mediareleasedateahs

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