# Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030

> Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 73%, runner-up 68% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleaseprisonbreak
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.276Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 73%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2028 at 68%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-29jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-28jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-28jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-27jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 19¢ | −5pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-season-of-prison-break-be-released-worl-kalshi-kxmediareleaseprisonbreak-30jan01-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2029 | Before Jul 1, 2028 | Before Jan 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | — | 69 | — |
| 2026-04-16 | — | — | 65 |
| 2026-04-18 | 73 | 71 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 69 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 73 | 69 | 65 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −5pp 24→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether a new season of Prison Break will air worldwide before January 1, 2030, currently priced at 72%. The show, which concluded in 2017 after five seasons, would require a revival greenlight, production completion, and global distribution within approximately 3.5 years. The high probability reflects both the show's enduring popularity and streaming platforms' tendency to revive legacy franchises, though production timelines and network commitment remain uncertain. The critical catalyst will be any official announcement from Fox or a streaming service about renewal status; currently, no confirmed revival has been announced. Until such confirmation appears, the market is pricing in reasonable possibility based on broader industry trends rather than concrete development milestones.

### Key factors

- No official renewal announcement for Prison Break has been made by Fox or any streaming platform as of May 2026
- The original series concluded in 2017, and successful legacy revivals (Cobra Kai, Ozark revivals) typically take 2-4 years from greenlight to release
- Production, post-production, and global distribution typically require 12-18 months minimum after production begins
- Streaming services have actively invested in reviving established franchises, increasing baseline likelihood of consideration
- The 72% price significantly exceeds the 53% Kalshi average, suggesting leading contract traders assess higher probability than the aggregated market

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleaseprisonbreak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mediareleaseprisonbreak

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.