# Will the official trailer for Spider-Man

> Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027 leads at 93%, runner-up 88% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleasespiderman
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.198Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027 at 93%
- Runner-up: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 at 88%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $33

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027 | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-trailer-for-spider-man-beyond-th-kalshi-kxmediareleasespiderman-dec27 |
| Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-trailer-for-spider-man-beyond-th-kalshi-kxmediareleasespiderman-aug27 |
| Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 82¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-trailer-for-spider-man-beyond-th-kalshi-kxmediareleasespiderman-apr27 |
| Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-trailer-for-spider-man-beyond-th-kalshi-kxmediareleasespiderman-dec26 |
| Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 52¢ | +1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-trailer-for-spider-man-beyond-th-kalshi-kxmediareleasespiderman-aug26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 | Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | — | 52 |
| 2026-04-14 | 68 | 52 |
| 2026-04-22 | 71 | 55 |
| 2026-04-23 | 69 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 68 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 55 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 52 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 53 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract measures whether Sony will release an official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse worldwide before August 1, 2026. The 93% probability reflects that the film is scheduled for theatrical release in late 2026, making a trailer release by early August highly probable as standard marketing practice. Major studios typically begin trailer campaigns 4-6 months before theatrical release. The primary downside risk involves production delays or unexpected release date changes; the main upside driver would be early promotional announcements. The critical resolution point approaches in early August 2026, when either the trailer appears or the deadline passes. Current low trading volume ($10 24h) suggests limited recent position changes, potentially indicating consensus among traders about the likelihood of standard marketing rollout.

### Key factors

- Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse has a confirmed late-2026 theatrical release window, creating baseline expectation for trailer release 4-6 months prior
- August 1, 2026 deadline is approximately 3 months away, providing ample typical lead time for major studio marketing campaigns
- No public production delays or release date revisions have been announced as of May 2026
- Runner-up contract at 88% suggests meaningful but minority probability that trailer delay extends past August 1
- Trading volume of $10 per 24 hours indicates sparse recent activity, with most price discovery likely completed earlier

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mediareleasespiderman
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mediareleasespiderman

## License

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