# Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026

> Troy Jackson leads at 48%, runner-up 29% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mednomjul
Updated: 2026-07-10T00:20:50.684Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Troy Jackson at 48%
- Runner-up: Shenna Bellows at 29%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $304K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 48¢ | −2pp | $120K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-troy-jackson-is-the-demo-kalshi-kxmednomjul-26aug01-tjac |
| Shenna Bellows | 29¢ | +5pp | $61K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-shenna-bellows-is-the-de-kalshi-kxmednomjul-26aug01-sbel |
| Nirav Shah | 11¢ | +1pp | $64K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-nirav-shah-is-the-democr-kalshi-kxmednomjul-26aug01-nsha |
| Dan Kleban | 3¢ | +1pp | $59K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-confirmed-that-dan-kleban-is-the-democr-kalshi-kxmednomjul-26aug01-dkle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Troy Jackson | Shenna Bellows | Nirav Shah |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 52 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-07-07 | 53 | 19 | 15 |
| 2026-07-08 | 47 | 25 | 13 |
| 2026-07-09 | 45 | 30 | 14 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Shenna Bellows +7pp 12→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Troy Jackson −6pp 53→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Shenna Bellows +6pp 19→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Shenna Bellows +5pp 25→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Nirav Shah +3pp 12→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Nirav Shah will be formally confirmed as Maine's Democratic Senate nominee by July 31, 2026. Shah currently ranks second among Democratic candidates in prediction markets at 17%, trailing Troy Jackson at 57%. The probability is shaped by several dynamics: Jackson's current lead reflects his established political profile and recent polling performance, while Shah's position reflects his competitive viability as an alternative candidate. The Maine Democratic primary vote itself, scheduled for June 23, 2026, has already occurred as of this date, meaning the nominee may already be determined but formal confirmation could still be pending. Key factors affecting this probability include the primary vote results, any challenges or disputes to the nomination process, and the timeline for official party certification by the stated July 31 deadline.

### Key factors

- Maine's Democratic primary occurred on June 23, 2026; primary results would directly determine nominee viability
- Troy Jackson currently leads prediction markets at 57% versus Shah's 17%, indicating market consensus favors Jackson among remaining candidates
- Trading volume on Shah's contract ($6,905 in 24-hour volume) is lower than Jackson's ($10,602), suggesting less market certainty or engagement
- The formal nomination confirmation process and its timeline relative to July 31, 2026 will determine if the condition is satisfied
- Any primary results showing Shah outperforming market expectations or Jackson underperforming would shift probability substantially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mednomjul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mednomjul
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.