# Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 20 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/melbourne-city-fc-vs-adelaide-united-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:26.243Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 34% — 6pp spread
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 19¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-dc-united-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-dcu |
| New York City | 54¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-new-york-city-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-nyc |
| Tie | 25¢ | +2pp | $884 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-tie |
| Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score | 52¢ | +1pp | $598 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-both-teams-to-score-bot-kalshi-kxmlsbtts-26may03nycdcu |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-15-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-1 |
| Zero Tenacity | 16¢ | +3pp | $341 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-z10 |
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-25-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-2 |
| Nigma Galaxy | 82¢ | ±0 | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-nigma-galaxy-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-g-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-ngx |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 28¢ | −1pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-35-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-3 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 27¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 12¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-45-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-4 |
| Zero Tenacity | 23¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-map-2-in-the-zero-tenacity-kalshi-kxdota2map-26may031100z10ngx-2-z10 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x58385daf88ca47fa200b7d8f644073a7f5d65f7f79076ce514b59fe11065685c |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xe281bebf883174950005c88d94614922a1d58445e2fd7f8582f73a1eb3b9c04a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xae2766d22cfd12afb304c7d9808f40f1e422bd74cf37fd95b22f2660775a6491 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score +30pp 19→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Zero Tenacity +10pp 12→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Nigma Galaxy +9pp 70→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +6pp 65→71¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/melbourne-city-fc-vs-adelaide-united-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=melbourne-city-fc-vs-adelaide-united-fc

## License

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