# Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 800 million items sold in Q2 2026

> above 740 million leads at 93%, runner-up 84% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/meli
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.445Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-02

## Headline

- Leader: above 740 million at 93%
- Runner-up: above 760 million at 84%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above 740 million | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-740-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p740000000 |
| above 760 million | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-760-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p760000000 |
| above 780 million | 70¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-780-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p780000000 |
| above 800 million | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-800-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p800000000 |
| above 820 million | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-820-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p820000000 |
| above 840 million | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-840-million-ite-kalshi-kxmeli-26augitems-p840000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above 740 million | above 760 million | above 780 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 33 | 43 | 35 |
| 2026-05-21 | 94 | 84 | 69 |
| 2026-05-24 | 94 | 85 | 70 |
| 2026-05-25 | 94 | 85 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 93 | 85 | 70 |
| 2026-05-27 | 94 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · above 740 million +61pp 33→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · above 760 million +41pp 43→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · above 780 million +34pp 35→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · above 800 million +18pp 24→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · above 820 million +16pp 13→29¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/meli
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=meli

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.