# Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.15 billion items sold in 2026

> Above 3 billion leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/melia
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.858Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3 billion at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 3.05 billion at 90%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 billion | 92¢ | +25pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-3-billion-items-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3000000000.0 |
| Above 3.05 billion | 90¢ | +23pp | $344 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-305-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3050000000.0 |
| Above 3.1 billion | 87¢ | — | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-31-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3100000000.0 |
| Above 3.15 billion | 75¢ | +14pp | $586 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-315-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3150000000.0 |
| Above 3.2 billion | 68¢ | +15pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-32-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3200000000.0 |
| Above 3.25 billion | 62¢ | +10pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-325-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3250000000.0 |
| Above 3.3 billion | 58¢ | — | $118 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-33-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3300000000.0 |
| Above 3.35 billion | 48¢ | — | $462 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-335-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3350000000.0 |
| Above 3.4 billion | 37¢ | — | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-34-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3400000000.0 |
| Above 3.45 billion | 25¢ | — | $642 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-345-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3450000000.0 |
| Above 3.5 billion | 16¢ | — | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-35-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3500000000.0 |
| Above 3.55 billion | 10¢ | — | $218 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-355-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3550000000.0 |
| Above 3.6 billion | 7¢ | — | $893 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-36-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3600000000.0 |
| Above 3.65 billion | 4¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-365-billion-ite-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3650000000.0 |
| Above 3.7 billion | 3¢ | — | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-mercadolibre-inc-report-above-37-billion-item-kalshi-kxmelia-28janitems-3700000000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3 billion | Above 3.05 billion | Above 3.1 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 71 | 70 | 69 |
| 2026-06-24 | 96 | 93 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 3 billion +25pp 71→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.05 billion +23pp 70→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.2 billion +15pp 67→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.15 billion +14pp 71→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3.25 billion +10pp 64→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that MercadoLibre will report selling more than 3.15 billion items across its marketplace platform in 2026. The 94% assessment sits between the 92% probability for 3.1 billion and the 90% for 3.15 billion, suggesting traders view the 3.15 billion threshold as achievable but not certain. Growth trajectories on Latin America's largest e-commerce platform depend on transaction volumes, which are driven by user expansion, merchant participation, and economic conditions in key markets including Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. Resolution comes when MercadoLibre reports full-year 2026 results, typically in early 2027. The narrow spacing between contract prices (90-94 cents) indicates traders distinguish meaningful differences in volume targets but see strong likelihood the company meets or exceeds 3 billion items sold. Historical growth rates and current market saturation levels in MercadoLibre's operating regions will be critical benchmarks for assessing whether the 3.15 billion figure represents realistic extrapolation or overconfidence.

### Key factors

- MercadoLibre's item sales grew from 2.1 billion in 2023 to 2.7 billion in 2024, requiring approximately 16% growth in 2026 to reach 3.15 billion
- Economic conditions and consumer spending patterns in Brazil and Mexico during 2026 will directly impact marketplace transaction volumes and merchant participation rates
- The company's historical disclosure practices and prior accuracy of guidance provide a baseline for judging whether management's public statements support growth toward the 3.15 billion level
- Competitive pressure from Amazon and Shopify operations in Latin America could constrain market share and item velocity gains
- The resolution mechanism depends entirely on MercadoLibre's reported 2026 financial results, with no interim quarterly data points to adjust probabilities before year-end reporting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/melia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=melia

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