# 2026 Men's French Open Winner

> Jannik Sinner leads at 71%, runner-up 7% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-french-open-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.223Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Jannik Sinner at 71%
- Runner-up: Alexander Zverev at 7%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $36K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 71¢ | +5pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-french-open-winner-jannik-sinner-polymarket-0x23e817f30871533d3bd7da01e68b802c5fccb8f44f053ef4ea5789c8a28563fe |
| Alexander Zverev | 7¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-french-open-winner-alexander-zverev-polymarket-0x739e756119534672538d8df821a5b3321e2c802d80afff0c5790126be9b41281 |
| Novak Djokovic | 4¢ | +1pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-french-open-winner-novak-djokovic-polymarket-0x226e885e5380a6fd143cf8aec4d4d7ce7feece4625cc2301f450655f377f8847 |
| Arthur Fils | 4¢ | −1pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-french-open-winner-arthur-fils-polymarket-0xe3e8b373d68c1c839f0075df953135e8c84937d6e0f661db72f9b6b33ac057b7 |
| Rafael Jodar | 4¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-french-open-winner-rafael-jodar-polymarket-0x3e166e94d38707543b2e951c325eb9b917468b99e75294d11cd853587364d934 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jannik Sinner | Alexander Zverev | Novak Djokovic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 33 | 5 | 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | 62 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | 65 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 68 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 7 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 72 | 7 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 7 | 6 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Jannik Sinner +5pp 67→72¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 68% probability reflects market expectations that Jannik Sinner will win the 2026 Men's French Open, with the remaining 32% distributed among other contenders. Sinner's current dominance in clay-court tennis and recent performance trajectory support this elevated probability, though injuries, form decline, or emergence of challengers could shift it downward. The French Open, typically held in late May/early June, represents a key test of whether Sinner can maintain or extend his clay-court supremacy. Market confidence concentrates heavily on Sinner, with runner-up Alexander Zverev at only 7%, suggesting traders view the field as relatively fragmented compared to the favorite.

### Key factors

- Sinner's recent clay-court performance record and ranking as of May 2026
- Zverev and Fils's tournament form and injury status entering the French Open
- Historical clay-court strength patterns and head-to-head records between top contenders
- Trading volume concentration ($7,764 on Zverev vs. $4,040 on Djokovic) indicating confidence asymmetry across the field
- The 32% probability mass assigned to all non-Sinner outcomes, suggesting meaningful uncertainty despite market favorite status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-french-open-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mens-french-open-winner

## License

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