# 2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros

> Winner: Jannik Sinner leads at 72%, runner-up 8% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-singles-roland-garros
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.689Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Jannik Sinner at 72%
- Runner-up: Winner: Alexander Zverev at 8%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Jannik Sinner | 72¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-jannik-sinn-polymarket-0xe5a8f34117c2e467a0a1b3f3735c7b3ce5b696c55f40b8b4fa9013de57fd86e5 |
| Winner: Alexander Zverev | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-alexander-z-polymarket-0x043726dab442991a3dd7f925a9efff2adff94e7883dff418c22f7178352a2d60 |
| Winner: Novak Djokovic | 6¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-novak-djoko-polymarket-0x7f8e9f66726ced43cf171b2522917da9351f8ff70e30dd24171bcf2f1b5f1241 |
| Winner: Alex de Minaur | 3¢ | — | $429 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-alex-de-min-polymarket-0x833f23acc07af612d8c6ce0514ef77b8f0eb7689e79f98cf0cff549df8c99d4e |
| Winner: Lorenzo Musetti | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-lorenzo-mus-polymarket-0x44f72e37abd66db6f98e31a301d917bf185038cc6efdb9c71fe05b9188ce341d |
| Winner: Flavio Cobolli | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-singles-roland-garros-winner-flavio-cobo-polymarket-0xc8eed8269df43fe1b6b4383c5d78ec8d24c39d2206a772510f9810bf92a81ef5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Jannik Sinner | Winner: Alexander Zverev | Winner: Novak Djokovic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 12 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 12 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 73 | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 72 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 68% probability reflects market expectations that Jannik Sinner will win the 2026 Men's Singles title at Roland Garros, scheduled for late May. Sinner's ranking, recent performance, and clay-court consistency have established him as the clear favorite, though the market assigns roughly 32% combined probability to other contenders. The price is primarily driven by his status as world number one and track record on European clay surfaces. Upcoming tournaments in spring 2026, injury reports, and performance at earlier clay events this season will likely adjust the probability meaningfully. The contract shows minimal trading volume ($3 in 24 hours), suggesting limited recent conviction shifts despite the high odds. Historically, favorites in Grand Slams face unpredictable challenges from Form variance, surface conditions, and draws that can alter outcomes substantially.

### Key factors

- Sinner's current ATP ranking and clay-court win rate relative to other top-10 competitors in May 2026
- Trading volume and price movement across competing contracts (Musetti at 3¢, Zverev at 12¢) indicating whether the 68¢ reflects consensus or concentrated bets
- Results from warm-up clay tournaments in April-May 2026 immediately preceding Roland Garros
- Injury or fitness status updates for Sinner and top 5 rivals in the 60 days before the tournament
- Head-to-head records and recent match outcomes between Sinner and the 12¢-priced contenders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-singles-roland-garros
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mens-singles-roland-garros

## License

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