# 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

> Jannik Sinner leads at 50%, runner-up 19% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-wimbledon-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.812Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Leader: Jannik Sinner at 50%
- Runner-up: Carlos Alcaraz at 19%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 50¢ | +2pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-jannik-sinner-polymarket-0x16b3e96fc29f37ff8a5309e82e1ebd11b6658b171dd788104d9a88c12cceebb6 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 19¢ | ±0 | $307 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-carlos-alcaraz-polymarket-0xc9f42ba0fe54183b6c253201b62d09a21807d79e0461a03505133039de37a9c3 |
| Novak Djokovic | 9¢ | ±0 | $839 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-novak-djokovic-polymarket-0x8ba7dc2b5682330a6064966b011f2a6dc6a95b4c6b8589157064f6331ab3e1cd |
| Alexander Zverev | 4¢ | +32pp | $697 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-alexander-zverev-polymarket-0x9f6c180ed79bccf08b3d58d23c6af3a87afd4d0b176e770c6951a573dcaee814 |
| Jack Draper | 4¢ | +1pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-jack-draper-polymarket-0xb73951be2a5c01c9dfe9a613b64f3be2bff9268a8997770655e4e72b39bcdc0b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jannik Sinner | Carlos Alcaraz | Novak Djokovic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 38 | 37 | 6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 40 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | 18 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 52 | 25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 48 | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 19 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 | — | 9 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Novak Djokovic −4pp 13→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 48% probability indicates that market participants assess one player as the favorite to win the 2026 Wimbledon men's singles title, though significant uncertainty remains given the runner-up sits at 19%. This level reflects typical pre-tournament odds for elite grass-court specialists, influenced by recent performance on comparable surfaces and career success at the All England Club. Wimbledon takes place in late June or early July 2026, and the probability will shift based on spring clay-court results, injury reports, and qualifying match outcomes as the tournament approaches. Current trading volume ($683 in 24 hours for the leading contract) suggests moderate market interest, typical for a major tennis event months in advance.

### Key factors

- The leader's 48% probability exceeds the runner-up's 19%, indicating market consensus rather than a balanced field—this reflects either dominant recent form on grass or a historical Wimbledon record that stands out
- Spring 2026 results on clay courts and hard courts will likely influence perceptions of grass-court readiness; players' performance from March through May serves as a real-time data feed for market adjustments
- Wimbledon qualifies as a specific, dated event scheduled for late June/early July 2026, meaning all uncertainty resolves in a single outcome rather than gradual decay—this creates binary price behavior
- Trading volume of $683 in 24 hours on the leading contract is modest but active, suggesting the market incorporates information incrementally rather than suffering from illiquidity
- The presence of four bound contracts and a four-way split indicates the market sees at least three other viable contenders, reducing the leader's implicit edge and preventing extreme concentration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mens-wimbledon-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mens-wimbledon-winner

## License

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