# Will the Brazil win the 2026 Men's World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 8 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/menworldcup
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.221Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2028-07-18

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2.2M

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 10¢ | −1pp | $460K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portugal-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-port-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-pt |
| Spain | 16¢ | −1pp | $365K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-spain-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-spain-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-es |
| Netherlands | 4¢ | ±0 | $337K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-netherlands-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-n-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-nl |
| France | 16¢ | ±0 | $300K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-france-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-france-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-fr |
| England | 10¢ | +1pp | $281K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-england-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-engla-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-gb |
| Brazil | 8¢ | −1pp | $226K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brazil-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-brazil-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-br |
| Argentina | 9¢ | −1pp | $136K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-argentina-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-arg-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-ar |
| Germany | 6¢ | +1pp | $62K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-germany-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-germa-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-de |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 10 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 |
| 2026-06-08 | 5 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Brazil is currently assigned a 10% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on aggregated prediction market data. This reflects the team's historical strength but acknowledges competition from other established nations. Brazil's probability is primarily driven by squad composition and form heading into the tournament, along with the unpredictability inherent in knockout competitions. The 2026 World Cup takes place from June 12 to July 12, 2026, and will definitively resolve this market. Key factors markets appear to weigh include Brazil's current ranking in FIFA standings, performance in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, recent tournament results (Copa América outcomes), squad depth and injuries of key players, and historical win rates in knockout stages relative to peer nations.

### Key factors

- Brazil's FIFA ranking and performance trajectory in the 12 months preceding June 2026
- Results and form demonstrated in CONMEBOL qualifying rounds compared to other South American competitors
- Injury status and availability of core squad members during the tournament period
- Historical conversion rates for Brazil in World Cup knockout stages versus other nations with similar pre-tournament odds
- Tournament draw outcome and strength of opponents in Brazil's group stage and potential knockout path

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/menworldcup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=menworldcup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.