# Will Maine Governor winner be Republican party and Maine Senate winner be Democratic party

> Democrats sweep leads at 59%, runner-up 33% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mesengovcombo
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.001Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democrats sweep at 59%
- Runner-up: Democratic Governor, Republican Senator at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $106

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats sweep | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maine-governor-winner-be-democratic-party-and-kalshi-kxmesengovcombo-26nov-demdem |
| Democratic Governor, Republican Senator | 33¢ | +3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-maine-governor-winner-be-democratic-party-and-kalshi-kxmesengovcombo-26nov-demrep |
| Republicans sweep | 3¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-maine-governor-winner-be-republican-party-and-kalshi-kxmesengovcombo-26nov-reprep |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democrats sweep | Democratic Governor, Republican Senator | Republicans sweep |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 53 | 32 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 53 | 33 | 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 29 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 55 | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 56 | — | 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | 58 | 33 | 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | 62 | 34 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 60 | 33 | 3 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Democratic Governor, Republican Senator −4pp 34→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Democratic Governor, Republican Senator +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Maine voters will elect a Republican governor while simultaneously choosing a Democratic state senator in the 2026 election cycle. Currently priced at 4 cents, this mixed-outcome scenario is the least likely of the four possible combinations, suggesting markets view it as relatively improbable compared to a Democratic sweep (51%) or a Democratic governor paired with a Republican senator (32%). The pricing reflects expectations about Maine's political leanings, candidate strength, and regional voting patterns. This outcome would require divergent voting behavior across statewide offices, which historically occurs less frequently than straight-ticket outcomes. Key drivers include candidate quality, campaign momentum, and whether national partisan trends align with or diverge from state-level preferences. The resolution will occur following Maine's November 2026 general election when both offices are decided simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Maine has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections (2000-2020), suggesting structural Democratic advantage in statewide races
- Split outcomes require voters to support different parties for governor versus senate, a behavior pattern less common than straight-ticket voting in most U.S. states
- Candidate recruitment and name recognition in each race will significantly influence whether cross-party voting occurs or consolidates around party lines
- Campaign spending and advertising intensity between now and November 2026 may shift voter preferences across the two separate contests
- Approval ratings of the incumbent governor and senator (if applicable) and broader national political environment could accelerate or decelerate movement toward this mixed outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mesengovcombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mesengovcombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.