# Will Messi play in the 2026 World Cup?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 16 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/messi-world-cup-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.901Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2028-07-18

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 24% / Polymarket 19% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $6.7M

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 10¢ | +1pp | $993K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-portugal-polymarket-0x4f3421fb2daf5cca7430ed8d8132463963081572d75434393a1808fdb8829fe8 |
| Netherlands | 4¢ | — | $940K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9be56371f6a29d12769b2f196847ee825b9585ebb8bfa042136be031b081eba1 |
| Brazil | 8¢ | — | $932K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-brazil-polymarket-0x30d55d8124ee1e12dabe89201badc45669b81dff69e4ce44d961f32878ec178a |
| Germany | 5¢ | −1pp | $833K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-germany-polymarket-0x1595b4818eeb1ea1e0bec5de6f057218e557feee9b405a0e930d290384fa1d16 |
| France | 16¢ | −1pp | $584K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-france-polymarket-0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894 |
| England | 11¢ | — | $554K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-england-polymarket-0x375409bc5eeeff961e82b479caeccc20f33d15738e5bce1186d628aa3d9dfb1f |
| Portugal | 10¢ | −1pp | $504K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portugal-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-port-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-pt |
| Spain | 16¢ | −1pp | $437K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-spain-polymarket-0x7976b8dbacf9077eb1453a62bcefd6ab2df199acd28aad276ff0d920d6992892 |
| Spain | 16¢ | −1pp | $369K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-spain-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-spain-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-es |
| France | 16¢ | ±0 | $298K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-france-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-france-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-fr |
| Argentina | 9¢ | +1pp | $220K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-argentina-polymarket-0x0c4cd2055d6ea89354ffddc55d6dbcef9355748112ea952fc925f3db6a5c457f |
| Germany | 6¢ | +1pp | $61K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-germany-win-the-2026-mens-world-cup-germa-kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-de |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | 90¢ | +1pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup-polymarket-0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 |
| Lionel Messi | 4¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-lead-fifa-world-cup-in-goals-for-kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-lmes |
| Coldplay | 23¢ | +1pp | $69 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-kalshi-kxworldcuphalftime-26-col |
| Yes | 96¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-2026-fifa-world-cup-game-be-played-in-massa-kalshi-kxwclocation-26mass-yes |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 54 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 |
| 2026-06-08 | 29 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Coldplay −14pp 42→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Coldplay +4pp 34→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Coldplay +4pp 38→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Coldplay +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Yes +3pp 93→96¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/messi-world-cup-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=messi-world-cup-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.