# Will Meta (META) close above ___ end of April — $660

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 3 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/meta-meta-close-above-april
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:28.419Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 11% / Polymarket 13% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $98

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7¢ | ±0 | $93 | polymarket | /markets/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-june-30-polymarket-0x44878f202dd18a286de9235acec372e9e6e6ca2b28d269c4138fc2604c9b78a9 |
| $1B | 19¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xb0dafd2efe994270384d6265f1c62dbfe10880bba15dfda68974898617b5cee8 |
| above $5013.99 | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-501399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t5013.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 12 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · $1B −4pp 20→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · above $5013.99 +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/meta-meta-close-above-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=meta-meta-close-above-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.