# Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026

> James Talarico and Graham Platner leads at 34%, runner-up 29% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/metxcombo
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:48.955Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: James Talarico and Graham Platner at 34%
- Runner-up: Ken Paxton and Susan Collins at 29%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $250

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico and Graham Platner | 34¢ | −1pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-senate-be-james-talarico-wins-and-maine-kalshi-kxmetxcombo-26nov-tal-pla |
| Ken Paxton and Susan Collins | 29¢ | −1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-senate-be-ken-paxton-wins-and-maine-sen-kalshi-kxmetxcombo-26nov-pax-col |
| Ken Paxton and Graham Platner | 27¢ | ±0 | $168 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-senate-be-ken-paxton-wins-and-maine-sen-kalshi-kxmetxcombo-26nov-pax-pla |
| James Talarico and Susan Collins | 6¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-senate-be-james-talarico-wins-and-maine-kalshi-kxmetxcombo-26nov-tal-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | James Talarico and Graham Platner | Ken Paxton and Susan Collins | Ken Paxton and Graham Platner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 24 | 24 | 36 |
| 2026-06-09 | 34 | 28 | 23 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 31 | 24 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 30 | 27 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | — | 26 |
| 2026-06-21 | 34 | 28 | 26 |
| 2026-06-24 | 34 | 31 | 27 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Ken Paxton and Susan Collins +4pp 28→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · James Talarico and Susan Collins −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · James Talarico and Susan Collins −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market-implied probability that Republican Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate seat and Democrat Susan Collins wins the Maine Senate seat in November 2026. The 35% price reflects that markets currently see a "Ken Paxton and Graham Platner" outcome (35%) as more likely than the Paxton-Collins combination (24%). The Texas race outcome and Maine race outcome are independent events, so their joint probability depends heavily on which candidates advance through primaries and how competitive each general election appears. Collins' political positioning in Maine and Paxton's standing in Texas polling will be key drivers. The main uncertainty resolves through the November 2026 general election; near-term movement will likely track primary results, campaign developments, and any polling updates through summer and fall 2026.

### Key factors

- Ken Paxton's approval and standing among Texas Republican primary voters and general election swing voters; his political trajectory since 2024
- Susan Collins' re-election viability in Maine relative to her Democratic challenger; her past electoral performance in the state
- The relative strength and funding of each candidate's campaign infrastructure heading into the general election
- Turnout and voter preference patterns in both Texas and Maine during the 2026 cycle, particularly among independents and moderates
- Primary calendar and candidate consolidation in each state; whether other candidates drop out and reallocate support before November 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/metxcombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=metxcombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.