# Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before September 1, 2026

> Before October 1, 2026 leads at 36%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexcuboil
Updated: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.751Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before October 1, 2026 at 36%
- Runner-up: Before September 1, 2026 at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before October 1, 2026 | 36¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-resume-oil-exports-to-cuba-before-octo-kalshi-kxmexcuboil-26-oct |
| Before September 1, 2026 | 21¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-resume-oil-exports-to-cuba-before-sept-kalshi-kxmexcuboil-26-sep |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-resume-oil-exports-to-cuba-before-augu-kalshi-kxmexcuboil-26-aug |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 22 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Mexico will resume oil shipments to Cuba within 67 days (by September 1, 2026). Mexico halted such exports due to U.S. sanctions pressure and diplomatic concerns. The 36% probability for October suggests traders see resumption as unlikely but plausible. The probability gradient across the four dates—3% for July, 13% for August, 21% for September, 36% for October—indicates low near-term momentum but gradual accumulation of probability over time. Key drivers include U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations, Mexican domestic political constraints, and Cuba's negotiating position. Any official Mexican government statement authorizing exports would be the primary resolution catalyst.

### Key factors

- Mexico's oil production capacity and export volumes relative to domestic demand and other international commitments
- Current U.S. administration policy toward Cuba sanctions enforcement and diplomatic pressure on Mexico
- Public statements or official actions by Mexican government officials regarding Cuba energy trade eligibility
- Market volume concentration: July contract shows $1449 in 24-hour volume while September shows $0, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unstable price discovery
- Timeline compression: only 67 days remain until the September 1 reference date, limiting time for diplomatic or policy shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexcuboil
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mexcuboil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.