# Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 — <0.0%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 9 contracts — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-gdp-growth-q1
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:10.903Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 88% / Polymarket 20% — 68pp spread
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.6% | 70¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.6 |
| Above 2.4% | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.4 |
| Above 2.2% | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.2 |
| Above 2.0% | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.0 |
| 6.0-7.0% | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026-60-70-polymarket-0xe531b038463306e142ec396b4249022f5eb8c082733d4f76662332e4f0fa8c27 |
| 3.3% | 16¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-world-gdp-growth-33-polymarket-0xb8e453f1147b9ed4b0303476ca53d065137dee9ab0286e9b281e1c9eb1e3b627 |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1 |
| <0% | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026-0-polymarket-0x426e80109336e68bf5f9a4b6edadc6831639d104e5892750fdf626f8dfbfdbcd |
| Above $2.0 trillion | 80¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mexico-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-20-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-mex26-2.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 59 |
| 2026-05-25 | 54 |
| 2026-06-01 | 57 |
| 2026-06-07 | 28 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 6.0-7.0% +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · 3.3% +13pp 8→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 3.3% −7pp 21→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Above 2.6% −4pp 74→70¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-gdp-growth-q1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mexico-gdp-growth-q1
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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