# Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 — 2.5%+

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-gdp-growth-q2
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: -0.5-0.0% at 49%
- Runner-up: 1.0-1.5% at 49%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.5-0.0% | 49¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-05-00-polymarket-0xb5e81ed4505222492089b249b90ae7cc57b8232bb8b627902496bddc8679c94a |
| 1.0-1.5% | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-10-15-polymarket-0xd73bff3092e0c4bf0a35da772b59cba3c069c980b4a1656eda2c886031587e17 |
| <-0.5% | 48¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-05-polymarket-0xf2c6911c8dd33d38eba6f65719f58c61b6954c6b2021d202f384c3e94ff2925d |
| 2.5%+ | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-25-polymarket-0xf57d1b36540028b10c42ba351ab57a7a9592e6cf86fd63ad1a692226128ed629 |
| 2.0-2.5% | 42¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-20-25-polymarket-0x99285cb79c85086cff29e78f5fca5b48c27a0311b826ec85ca460cf11654e6ad |
| 0.0-0.5% | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-00-05-polymarket-0x2bc6ae80f1e357942bd8f6e96b239dde44a5cd6e9f3c3a5eca5b9ff1729f849f |
| 1.5-2.0% | 39¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-15-20-polymarket-0xd0b445937bf46f3173fa2956931e21fbeae2a3ecae60609a3dd28e41368b368b |
| 0.5-1.0% | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-05-10-polymarket-0x53cc7f3da61ae2a3fea6ffe0d6a9e5e5839dd3e9466ebdb3b9e597ce175c9fce |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | -0.5-0.0% | 1.0-1.5% | <-0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 27 | 26 | 24 |
| 2026-06-10 | 45 | 46 | 47 |
| 2026-06-17 | 45 | 47 | 44 |
| 2026-06-18 | 48 | 48 | 46 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · 1.5-2.0% +6pp 35→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · 2.0-2.5% +4pp 41→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 2.0-2.5% −3pp 44→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · -0.5-0.0% +3pp 45→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth at roughly even odds of hitting 2.5% or higher, with the current frontrunner being minimal growth in the 0.0–0.5% range. This reflects significant uncertainty about Mexico's economic momentum heading into mid-year. The baseline forecast depends heavily on whether recent manufacturing and remittance flows sustain momentum, or whether tightening financial conditions and nearshoring volatility slow activity. Inflation pressures and central bank policy responses also shape expectations. The resolution hinges on Mexico's official Q2 GDP release, typically published in early August, which will provide the definitive annualized growth figure. Until then, incoming employment, industrial production, and credit data through June and July will offer signals about the underlying trajectory.

### Key factors

- Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate and recent quarterly trend will anchor expectations for Q2 momentum
- U.S. economic growth and manufacturing demand directly influence Mexican export-driven sectors and FDI flows
- Banco de México's interest rate decisions and inflation data through Q2 affect domestic consumption and investment spending
- Remittance inflows, which represent a material portion of household income, depend on U.S. labor market conditions
- Official Q2 GDP release (expected early August 2026) will definitively resolve the outcome; prior monthly PMI and industrial production data will provide interim signals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-gdp-growth-q2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mexico-gdp-growth-q2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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