# Mexico vs. Korea Republic

> Mexico leads at 51%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-vs-korea-republic
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.494Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Leader: Mexico at 51%
- Runner-up: Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Republic) at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-korea-republic-mexico-polymarket-0x6f05c7bc5ad978f8f9916f05d30a7f752e02b81508c56d82ed7c9245bca163b0 |
| Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Republic) | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-korea-republic-draw-mexico-vs-korea-repu-polymarket-0x95e8c492f878a1c6b04e47caceee107037a26e4a8b040041b28a3be8eb0f6942 |
| Korea Republic | 28¢ | ±0 | $4 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-korea-republic-korea-republic-polymarket-0xa6ae199ce172475dd0e29d7584810a15a1d4608398d2f42d7ca39bfac45ed52b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mexico | Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Republic) | Korea Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 55 | 31 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 55 | 32 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 51 | 27 | 25 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Mexico +6pp 55→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Mexico −6pp 61→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Republic) −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Korea Republic −3pp 30→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Mexico −3pp 55→52¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Mexico will defeat Korea Republic in an upcoming match. The 60% probability suggests a lean toward Mexico, though the outcome remains genuinely contested. Mexico's higher ranking in the current FIFA standings and home-field advantage factors drive the elevated probability, while Korea Republic's defensive strength and tournament experience could shift expectations downward. The match result itself will provide definitive resolution, with actual team performance, injury status, and tactical matchups all influencing the final outcome. Market prices may shift substantially as the match date approaches based on team news, betting patterns, and any lineup adjustments.

### Key factors

- Mexico holds a higher FIFA ranking than Korea Republic as of early 2026
- The match venue location (home vs. away) affects probability significantly but is not specified in available data
- Recent head-to-head records or recent form of both teams would be a primary factor for probability calibration
- Injury status or suspension of key players for either team could shift probabilities materially
- The specific tournament context (group stage, knockout, friendly) affects the competitive stakes and team preparation levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-vs-korea-republic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mexico-vs-korea-republic

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.