# Mexico vs. South Africa

> Mexico leads at 66%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-vs-south-africa
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.539Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-11

## Headline

- Leader: Mexico at 66%
- Runner-up: Draw (Mexico vs. South Africa) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $329

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 66¢ | −1pp | $295 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-south-africa-mexico-polymarket-0x4cd77d456c83e7d8c569a8fb8f6396c3f40154f657e6d970733e2b1b6a7110ff |
| Draw (Mexico vs. South Africa) | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-south-africa-draw-mexico-vs-south-africa-polymarket-0x0a4b9beb6128863db2b107f185521597a426356f1d9a23c7001401edfd32014b |
| South Africa | 14¢ | ±0 | $33 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-vs-south-africa-south-africa-polymarket-0x17dfc75726fa95d4054d91e80295c8b3e494569617e67a7e620e27562b7952b0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mexico | Draw (Mexico vs. South Africa) | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 67 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 66 | — | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 66 | 23 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 66 | 23 | 14 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 65 | — | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 21 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Mexico is currently favored to win an unspecified matchup against South Africa, with traders assigning a 65% likelihood to a Mexico victory. The contract pricing reflects expectations around the teams' recent performance, squad composition, and any relevant tournament context. Key drivers of movement would include team news such as injuries, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments closer to the event date. The resolution hinges on the actual match outcome, which would definitively settle whether Mexico or South Africa prevails. Current market depth shows moderate trading activity across the three outcome contracts, with South Africa priced at 13 cents and a tie scenario at 20 cents, totaling near-certain market recognition that all outcomes remain possible.

### Key factors

- Mexico contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi with $441 24-hour volume, establishing the current market consensus but with relatively modest liquidity for a binary sports outcome
- South Africa priced at 13¢ suggests approximately 4.8-to-1 implied odds against them, a substantial gap that would reverse if roster changes or recent results shift expectations
- Tie outcome at 20¢ indicates roughly 20% implied probability, meaning the market expects meaningful scoring differential or clear winner despite match structure
- Trading volume across three contracts ($441-$576 range) is moderate, suggesting the event may have limited media coverage or occur outside major tournament windows
- No visible date specification in available contract data means resolution timing remains undefined, potentially affecting how near-term vs. longer-term factors influence current pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mexico-vs-south-africa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mexico-vs-south-africa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.