# MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner

> Christina Hines leads at 42%, runner-up 41% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi10-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.266Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Christina Hines at 42%
- Runner-up: Eric Chung at 41%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Hines | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-10-democratic-primary-winner-christina-hines-polymarket-0xb59d36284a3e05ca397761f1cbcbefcfee54fe0f3821d440140cbe5c3eb436f8 |
| Eric Chung | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-10-democratic-primary-winner-eric-chung-polymarket-0x9f9fcc462b3a8f8a4919813ed390be771e565a352566e7beb8be227343d7500f |
| Tim Greimel | 33¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-10-democratic-primary-winner-tim-greimel-polymarket-0xbb633b3f9459a3c89d6665ffb93c8e22095ada9ce6547f51965349af17d3857e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Christina Hines | Eric Chung | Tim Greimel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 8 | 70 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 | 68 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 47 | 36 |
| 2026-05-09 | 39 | 43 | 31 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Christina Hines +11pp 30→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Eric Chung −5pp 47→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Christina Hines −5pp 41→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Christina Hines −4pp 34→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Tim Greimel −3pp 34→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The Democratic primary for Michigan's 10th Congressional District currently shows the frontrunner with a 54% probability of winning, indicating a competitive race with meaningful uncertainty. The outcome depends heavily on candidate fundraising, organizational capacity, and base mobilization in what appears to be an open or contested seat. Recent polling data, endorsement patterns, and voter turnout models would be primary drivers of probability shifts. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, with performance indicators like debate participation, campaign spending reports, and local media coverage serving as near-term signals. The 19-point gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the field is differentiated but not decided.

### Key factors

- Frontrunner holds 54% while runner-up stands at 35%, indicating a competitive two-candidate race with 11% split among other candidates
- Campaign finance reports and spending velocity would shift probabilities materially, particularly if trailing candidates consolidate resources or suddenly gain donor momentum
- Local voter registration trends and early voting patterns in the district would provide concrete data on turnout composition favoring different candidates
- Endorsement from established party figures or labor organizations could move probabilities by reflecting institutional preference signals
- Primary election date outcome is the sole resolution mechanism, making pre-election polling and debate performance the key probability movers

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi10-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mi10-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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