# MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner

> Jeremy Moss leads at 91%, runner-up 5% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi11-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.590Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Jeremy Moss at 91%
- Runner-up: Don Ufford at 5%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $80

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Moss | 91¢ | ±0 | $80 | polymarket | /markets/mi-11-democratic-primary-winner-jeremy-moss-polymarket-0x105b2ca798a000f8f618239bb63cd71b1bc77550409e0c4cd19ef76daad5943f |
| Don Ufford | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-11-democratic-primary-winner-don-ufford-polymarket-0xdd4b166d77823bfd977457ae340247ca5d0c11fda24e8975d63417a8b62d3552 |
| Aisha Farooqi | 4¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-11-democratic-primary-winner-aisha-farooqi-polymarket-0xa608c54dcb2a92a77b6d7d4f1e781f60fb05ddcc502f8ba86a33a540adf03bfc |
| Dave Woodward | 4¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-11-democratic-primary-winner-dave-woodward-polymarket-0x166182ee3d95886dcd15b3b266aea9b7df93726cbe39887dd8f3c584e3a5b0e1 |
| Andy Levin | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-11-democratic-primary-winner-andy-levin-polymarket-0xec5589066b3a424652e8747d1c95d1b6478eb9632d18ff9d5a04164e3ea6b693 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jeremy Moss | Don Ufford | Aisha Farooqi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 80 | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 79 | 40 | — |
| 2026-04-19 | 80 | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | 80 | 14 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 83 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 92 | 5 | 14 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Aisha Farooqi +11pp 3→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Jeremy Moss +9pp 83→92¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Don Ufford −8pp 15→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Aisha Farooqi −5pp 8→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Dave Woodward +5pp 4→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market is pricing an 81% probability for a specific outcome in Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the Democratic nomination in this House race. The high probability suggests significant market confidence in the frontrunner based on current polling, fundraising data, and historical performance in similar contests. Factors driving this level include the candidate's polling lead, organizational strength, and perceived electability in the general election. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Between now and the primary vote, shifts in polling, campaign developments, or unexpected endorsements could move the probability materially lower, while sustained polling leads or major fundraising announcements could reinforce the current forecast.

### Key factors

- Current polling margin between the frontrunner and nearest rival in MI-11 Democratic primary
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand as of the most recent FEC filing
- Endorsement patterns from established party figures and union organizations in the district
- Historical voter turnout and demographic composition in previous MI-11 Democratic primaries
- Timeline to the primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi11-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mi11-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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