# MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

> Shri Thanedar leads at 54%, runner-up 36% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi13-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.397Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Shri Thanedar at 54%
- Runner-up: Donavan McKinney at 36%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shri Thanedar | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner-shri-thanedar-polymarket-0x399b69600812f9997ee0dcac06c74c9351f230baa53765eacbc443a77bc520b9 |
| Donavan McKinney | 36¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner-donavan-mckinney-polymarket-0x2cfbd8aabc3519021dc16ab0c7e0f42b0fdac191e64bcc3c42c2319c4c0117f3 |
| Shelby Campbell | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner-shelby-campbell-polymarket-0x7ab50d37b4e6bdf3003443e90e72c153e5ff7dfc7f3d3050421681c9a461f8cf |
| Anthony Carbonaro | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner-anthony-carbonaro-polymarket-0xfb3b8e9254d919bec8c6f1c1d12cca1e80876abee683774fd1a5e3131aee956f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Shri Thanedar | Donavan McKinney | Shelby Campbell |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 56 | — | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | 53 | 38 | 1 |
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | 38 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 38 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 54 | 30 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 4 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Donavan McKinney −8pp 38→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the probability that a specific candidate wins the Michigan's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. The 52% leading probability reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than a consensus outcome, with the runner-up candidate at 38% indicating a competitive race. Primary dynamics in this district are driven by candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, and organizational capacity. The main resolution catalyst is the Michigan primary election date, where voter turnout and demographic participation will determine the outcome. Between now and voting day, factors like campaign spending, local media coverage, and any late-breaking developments could shift candidate momentum significantly. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests either candidate remains viable depending on how these factors unfold.

### Key factors

- The 52% probability for the leader leaves 48% probability distributed among other candidates, indicating a competitive race rather than an overwhelming favorite
- Polymarket's three contracts show the market is segmented across multiple potential outcomes with active trading volume, reflecting genuine uncertainty about primary dynamics
- The runner-up candidate holds 38% implied probability, meaning there is substantial trader conviction that an alternative outcome remains plausible
- Turnout patterns and demographic participation in Michigan primary elections are historically variable and can significantly impact multi-candidate races
- The timing of the Michigan Democratic primary relative to other state contests could influence local candidate positioning and resource allocation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi13-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mi13-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.