# Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi13d
Updated: 2026-08-06T13:20:52.476Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1.2M

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavan McKinney | 97¢ | −2pp | $1.2M | kalshi | /markets/will-donavan-mckinney-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmi13d-26-dmck |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 83 |
| 2026-07-26 | 87 |
| 2026-08-01 | 84 |
| 2026-08-05 | 89 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Donavan McKinney +6pp 85→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 30% chance that Shri Thanedar wins the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 13th congressional district. The current probability reflects moderate competition in the race, likely shaped by factors such as Thanedar's existing political profile, the strength and fundraising capacity of other candidates in the primary, and local voter preferences in this Democratic-leaning district. The nomination will be resolved by the Michigan primary election, scheduled for August 2026, which will determine the actual winner through voter turnout and support across the district. Movements in this probability would likely respond to campaign developments including endorsements from local party figures, fundraising disclosures, polling data if available, candidate dropout announcements, or shifts in candidate visibility and ground operations in the district.

### Key factors

- Thanedar's vote share performance in the August 2026 Michigan Democratic primary election relative to competing candidates
- Campaign fundraising totals and spending rates for Thanedar compared to other nominees in the race through primary season
- Endorsements from Michigan Democratic establishment figures, labor organizations, or local elected officials
- Voter name recognition and favorability polling data for Thanedar versus primary opponents among MI-13 registered Democrats
- Whether competing candidates consolidate or remain fragmented heading into the August primary election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mi13d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mi13d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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