# Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/microstrategy-sell-bitcoin
Updated: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.261Z
Category: markets · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 90¢ | −1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodrguez-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-drod |
| Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 5¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-de-facto-hold-head-of-sta-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-mmac |
| Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 2¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-nicols-maduro-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-nmad |
| Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 1¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-edmundo-gonzlez-urrutia-de-facto-hold-head-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-egon |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 1¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jorge-rodrguez-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-jrod |
| Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 1¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-diosdado-cabello-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-dcab |
| Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 1¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-gustavo-gonzlez-lpez-de-facto-hold-head-of-st-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-glop |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 2¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-padrino-lpez-de-facto-hold-head-of-s-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-vlop |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 14 |
| 2026-05-25 | 91 |
| 2026-05-31 | 90 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/microstrategy-sell-bitcoin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=microstrategy-sell-bitcoin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.